Merck stock forecast 2027–2029 (MRK.DE)
MyStockButler's November 2026 analysis: Merck's weighted scenario is €137.83 in November 2027. It hinges on replacing Mavenclad before acquisitions and cyclical rebounds consume the cash.
Where could Merck's shares go?
The forecast points to a modest central outcome, but its range is wide. The weighted price is €137.83 in November 2027. It is €143.67 in November 2028 and €150.39 in November 2029. With dividends, the returns are -7% and -2% in the first two years. They reach +4% in the third.
The terminal range is €86.83 to €231.28. Today’s price is €151.30. The bear case carries 30%. The base carries 50%, and the bull 20%.
| Case | Probability | November 2027 | November 2028 | November 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 109.32 (-26 %) | 98.38 (-32 %) | 86.83 (-39 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 144.60 (-3 %) | 150.22 (+2 %) | 156.16 (+8 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 163.70 (+10 %) | 195.24 (+32 %) | 231.28 (+58 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 137.83 (-7 %) | 143.67 (-2 %) | 150.39 (+4 %) |
What has to go right for Merck, and what could go wrong?
The starting point is attributable equity of €30,172 million at June 2026. Equity rose from €21,338 million in 2021 to €28,592 million in 2025. It reached €30,172 million by June 2026. The base case assumes gradual profit growth, while the bear case ends at €34,320 million and the bull case at €40,223 million. The bear reflects Mavenclad erosion, pipeline failure, integration costs and adverse OCI. The bull assumes stronger Life Science and Electronics growth, successful Healthcare launches and Bio-Techne synergies.
How much cash does Merck really make?
Operating cash flow fell from €4.6 billion in 2024 to €3.9 billion in 2025. After capital spending and lease payments, the accompanying calculation produced free cash flow; after stock pay, it produced a stricter “real” figure. Merck’s own free-cash-flow measure differs because it includes intangible investment and specified licensing, disposal and voucher adjustments.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,932 | 4,586 | 3,784 | 4,259 | 4,616 |
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 350 | 63 | 140 | 916 | 349 |
| − Capital spending | 1,585 | 1,702 | 1,807 | 1,531 | 1,066 |
| − Lease payments | 153 | 139 | 149 | 150 | 141 |
| − Interest paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,194 | 2,745 | 1,828 | 2,578 | 3,409 |
What this means. Merck's own free cash flow is lower because it subtracts some investment and lease payments and handles asset sales, licensing, and partnership payments differently from our count.
What does an investor pay for Merck today?
The trailing P/E is 27.8 times, while the forward P/E is 16.8 times. P/E means the price paid for each euro of earnings. EBITDA pre adds back depreciation, amortization and selected restructuring or integration costs, making divisions easier to compare, but it is not cash: factories, acquisitions, interest, tax and working capital still consume money.
| Today (Nov 1, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 151.30 |
| Market value (calculated) | 65,781.89 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 74,347.89 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 27.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.3% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ expected profit, so it can be wrong.