Bristol Myers Squibb stock forecast
Bristol Myers Squibb's weighted scenario is $47.61 in October 2029. It hinges on growth brands replacing Eliquis and Opdivo profits before expected U.S. exclusivity losses around 2028.
Where could Bristol Myers Squibb's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is $59.29 in October 2027, a +4% return with dividends included. In October 2029, it is $47.61, a -7% return. Bear/base/bull probabilities are 25%/55%/20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 42.14 (-25 %) | 30.31 (-40 %) | 20.31 (-53 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 60.26 (+6 %) | 50.56 (-6 %) | 39.27 (-21 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 78.05 (+36 %) | 91.87 (+64 %) | 104.67 (+90 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 59.29 (+4 %) | 53.76 (-1 %) | 47.61 (-7 %) |
What has to go right for Bristol Myers Squibb, and what could go wrong?
The base assumes growth brands partly offset the legacy decline. That is supported by 2025 Growth Portfolio growth, but the older portfolio lost $4,427M in combined sales. The bear assumes replacement fails as Eliquis and Opdivo face expected U.S. exclusivity losses around 2028. The bull requires durable uptake, successful indications and cost savings.
How much cash does Bristol Myers Squibb really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash after necessary capital spending. In 2025, BMS generated $14.2 billion from operations and spent $1.3 billion on capital projects. It also paid $3.9 billion for acquisitions, which may be essential to replace ageing medicines but can be omitted from conventional free-cash-flow calculations. The dividend distributes cash; it does not create more, so adding its yield to the cash-flow yield would count the same money twice.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 14,156 | 15,190 | 13,860 | 13,066 | 16,207 |
| − Capital spending | 1,311 | 1,248 | 1,209 | 1,118 | 973 |
| = Free cash flow | 12,845 | 13,942 | 12,651 | 11,948 | 15,234 |
| − Stock pay | 553 | 507 | 518 | 457 | 583 |
| = Real free cash flow | 12,292 | 13,435 | 12,133 | 11,491 | 14,651 |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because we subtract the value of shares given to employees, even though this payment does not use cash.
What does an investor pay for Bristol Myers Squibb today?
Valuation ratios answer different questions. P/E compares the share price with earnings, while a forward P/E uses expected earnings instead of the last twelve months. Enterprise value to revenue compares the whole business with its sales, but says nothing about the cost of producing them.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 59.28 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 13.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 8.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 10.6% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 10.2% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings number uses analysts' guesses about future profit, so it is not based on profit the company has already earned.