Agilent Technologies stock forecast
The weighted price is $127.18 in October 2029, still a 25% loss including dividends. It hinges on Frederick qualifying quickly and converting bookings into repeat production.
Where could Agilent Technologies's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $125.60 in October 2028, a 26% loss including dividends. By October 2029, it reaches $127.18, still a 25% loss.
The October 2029 outcomes range from $79.85 in the bear case to $206.82 in the bull case. The bear case receives 30% probability. The base case receives 50%. The bull case receives 20%, because it requires both stronger earnings and a higher valuation.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 102.39 (-40 %) | 87.84 (-48 %) | 79.85 (-52 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 127.65 (-26 %) | 126.27 (-26 %) | 123.73 (-27 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 156.39 (-9 %) | 180.58 (+6 %) | 206.82 (+22 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 125.82 (-27 %) | 125.60 (-26 %) | 127.18 (-25 %) |
What has to go right—and wrong—for Agilent Technologies?
The bear case uses 2% growth and margins settling at 17.7%, because weak instrument budgets, China softness and delayed Frederick utilization could offset CrossLab resilience. The bull case uses faster growth and margins reaching 21.0%, because replacement demand, newer LC systems and successful Frederick production could improve mix. Temporary tariff refunds and unusual tax benefits are excluded.
How much cash does Agilent Technologies really make?
Stock-based compensation creates a second adjustment. The company adds it back in operating cash flow because no cash leaves immediately, but shareholders still bear the cost through dilution. Subtracting stock pay therefore produces a stricter view of cash available for dividends, debt repayment, acquisitions, or buybacks.
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,559 | 1,751 | 1,772 | 1,312 | 1,485 |
| − Capital spending | 407 | 378 | 298 | 291 | 188 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,152 | 1,373 | 1,474 | 1,021 | 1,297 |
| − Stock pay | 128 | 129 | 111 | 125 | 110 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,024 | 1,244 | 1,363 | 896 | 1,187 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 14.7% | 19.1% | 19.9% | 13.1% | 18.8% |
What this means. Stock pay uses no cash today, but we subtract it because giving employees shares reduces the part of the company that belongs to shareholders.
What does an investor pay for Agilent Technologies stock today?
Trailing P/E uses earnings already produced, while forward P/E uses expected earnings. If a $100 share earned $5 per share, its trailing P/E would be 20. If it is expected to earn $6, the forward multiple falls even though the share price has not changed. The lower multiple therefore assumes the forecast arrives.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 172.97 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 34.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.1% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.6% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts' expected profit, so it is an estimate rather than a result already earned.