MPC dividend: cash, history and yield
MPC pays $1.00 per share each quarter; annual dividends rose in every year of the supplied 2021–2025 history. MPC’s 2025 free cash flow was $4,767 million after $3,486 million of capital spending, while 2024 shareholder payments reached $10,343 million against $6,132 million of free cash flow, or 168.7%.
How much does MPC pay in dividends over time?
The dividend base case holds at $4.00 per share through 2027, then rises to $4.20 and $4.41. The current quarterly rate is $1.00, and annual dividends rose in every year of the supplied 2021–2025 history. The bear case cuts the payout to $3.80 and then $3.60 as free cash flow weakens. The bull case reaches $4.20, $4.62 and $5.08, supported by the prior 10% rate increase and MPLX distribution growth.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 13.22 | 10.08 | 23.63 | 27.98 | 2.02 |
| Free cash flow per share | 15.58 | 17.98 | 29.89 | 26.94 | 10.85 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 3.73 | 3.38 | 3.08 | 2.48 | 2.33 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 11.40 | 26.95 | 28.29 | 23.10 | 7.29 |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because it subtracts the value of shares given to employees as pay.
Does MPC’s cash cover its dividend?
MPC generates substantial cash, but capital spending, working capital and future obligations determine what remains. Operating cash flow was $8,253 million in 2025. After $3,486 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $4,767 million.
The pressure became clearer in 2024. Shareholder payments reached $10,343 million against free cash flow of $6,132 million, or 168.7%. MPC also paid $1,377 million to minority owners. MPC controls MPLX, so it includes MPLX’s full business in its consolidated accounts, but outside MPLX investors own part of the profits. Consolidated cash is therefore not all available to MPC shareholders.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 4,767 | 6,132 | 12,227 | 13,899 | 6,920 |
| − Paid to minority owners | 1,513 | 1,377 | 1,281 | 1,214 | 1,449 |
| − Dividends paid | 1,140 | 1,154 | 1,261 | 1,279 | 1,484 |
| − Share buybacks | 3,488 | 9,189 | 11,572 | 11,922 | 4,654 |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 1,374 | 5,588 | 1,887 | 516 | 667 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 97.1% | 168.7% | 105.0% | 95.0% | 88.7% |
What could change MPC’s dividend?
During 2028 and 2029, MPLX project volumes and distribution growth will decide whether cash supports MPC’s buybacks. MPC’s 2026 capital outlook assigns 65% of spending to value-enhancing investments, but returns still depend on execution.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 12,000 (8,000 / 15,000) | 11,500 (8,500 / 14,000) | 11,100 (9,500 / 12,500) |
| Shares (millions) | 274 (277 / 271) | 269 (273 / 263) | 264 (269 / 255) |
| Dividends per share | 4.00 (4.00 / 4.20) | 4.20 (3.80 / 4.62) | 4.41 (3.60 / 5.08) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 11.00 (8.00 / 14.00) | 10.50 (8.50 / 13.00) | 10.00 (9.00 / 12.00) |
| Net debt | 24,057 (26,266 / 22,699) | 22,999 (26,515 / 21,725) | 22,295 (25,897 / 22,032) |