Valero stock forecast
Valero’s weighted scenario is $221.03 in October 2027, a 51% loss including dividends, and $240.61 in October 2029, a 44% loss. Valero’s outlook hinges on whether strong margins endure and projects deliver.
Where could Valero’s shares go?
The weighted price is $221.03 in October 2027, a 51% loss including dividends. It is $240.61 in October 2029, a 44% loss. The bear case carries 35% probability. The base case carries 50% probability. The bull case carries 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35 % | 104.94 (-76 %) | 99.78 (-76 %) | 137.97 (-67 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 252.20 (-44 %) | 249.22 (-44 %) | 256.23 (-41 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 387.99 (-14 %) | 467.12 (+4 %) | 428.03 (-3 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 221.03 (-51 %) | 229.60 (-48 %) | 240.61 (-44 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Valero?
The operating-profit row carries the main cycle judgment. The base case uses $8,000m in October 2027 and $7,500m in October 2028. It reaches $7,323m in 2029, the five-year mean. The base assumes revenue near the five-year average and margins fading from the June 2026 rebound toward normal. June operating income was $5,196m, while throughput and reliability show the system’s upside when margins cooperate.
The bear case starts at $4,500m and falls to $4,000m before returning to $4,500m. The bull case runs at $10,000m, then $10,500m, before settling at $10,000m. The difference reflects supply, demand, outages and project execution. Benicia has stopped refining, Port Arthur repairs remain a risk, and Renewable Diesel lost $156m in 2025.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 8,000 (4,500 / 10,000) | 7,500 (4,000 / 10,500) | 7,323 (4,500 / 10,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 282 (285 / 280) | 276 (282 / 272) | 270 (279 / 264) |
| Dividends per share | 5.04 (4.80 / 5.28) | 5.28 (4.00 / 5.76) | 5.52 (3.20 / 6.24) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 9.00 (7.00 / 11.00) | 9.00 (7.00 / 12.00) | 9.00 (8.00 / 11.00) |
| Net debt | 880 (1,592 / 1,362) | -1,284 (-137 / -1,057) | -3,275 (-2,495 / -3,001) |
How much cash does Valero really make?
Valero’s own free-cash-flow measure removes working-capital movements and makes performance easier to compare, but actual cash still determines what can be invested or distributed. Maintenance is part of that test: management allocated most of its 2026 investment guidance to sustaining the existing business.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,826 | 6,683 | 9,229 | 12,574 | 5,859 |
| − Capital spending | 1,885 | 2,057 | 1,916 | 2,737 | 2,458 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,941 | 4,626 | 7,313 | 9,837 | 3,401 |
| − Stock pay | 117 | 100 | 107 | 103 | 88 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,824 | 4,526 | 7,206 | 9,734 | 3,313 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is different because it uses its own rules, leaving out some spending and sometimes subtracting cash items that our count includes.
What does an investor pay for Valero today?
The modest cash yield means the valuation depends heavily on profits growing or remaining unusually strong, which makes Valero’s own history the next test.