MPC stock forecast
The probability-weighted price is $373.78 in October 2027 and $332.34 in October 2029; the bear case has a 25% probability, the base case 60%, and the bull case 15%. It hinges on whether exceptional refining margins persist.
Where could MPC's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $373.78 in October 2027, a 22% loss including dividends. It is $332.34 in October 2029, a 29% loss including dividends. The bear case has a 25% probability. The base case has 60%, and the bull case 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 136.42 (-71 %) | 167.59 (-64 %) | 221.41 (-52 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 393.52 (-18 %) | 363.39 (-23 %) | 336.13 (-28 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 690.38 (+43 %) | 610.11 (+28 %) | 502.03 (+6 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 373.78 (-22 %) | 351.45 (-26 %) | 332.34 (-29 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it is not a separate prediction and can be below today's share price.
What has to go right for MPC, and what could go wrong?
The bear case gives $8,000 million in 2027 and $8,500 million in 2028. It reaches $9,500 million in 2029 as operations recover. This reflects rapid margin normalization, RIN expense and turnaround costs; MPC spent $1,514 million on refining turnarounds in 2025. The bull case gives $15,000 million in 2027 and $14,000 million in 2028. It falls to $12,500 million in 2029, remaining below the 2022 peak because even a favorable cycle should fade.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 12,000 (8,000 / 15,000) | 11,500 (8,500 / 14,000) | 11,100 (9,500 / 12,500) |
| Shares (millions) | 274 (277 / 271) | 269 (273 / 263) | 264 (269 / 255) |
| Dividends per share | 4.00 (4.00 / 4.20) | 4.20 (3.80 / 4.62) | 4.41 (3.60 / 5.08) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 11.00 (8.00 / 14.00) | 10.50 (8.50 / 13.00) | 10.00 (9.00 / 12.00) |
| Net debt | 24,057 (26,266 / 22,699) | 22,999 (26,515 / 21,725) | 22,295 (25,897 / 22,032) |
How much cash does MPC really make?
MPC generates substantial cash, but capital spending, working capital and future obligations determine what remains. Operating cash flow was $8,253 million in 2025. After $3,486 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $4,767 million.
MPC’s calculation becomes more conservative after deducting $160 million of stock compensation. That treats employee shares as an economic cost to existing owners, although it is not another cash payment during the year.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 8,253 | 8,665 | 14,117 | 16,319 | 8,384 |
| − Capital spending | 3,486 | 2,533 | 1,890 | 2,420 | 1,464 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,767 | 6,132 | 12,227 | 13,899 | 6,920 |
| − Stock pay | 160 | 137 | 211 | 153 | 88 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,607 | 5,995 | 12,016 | 13,746 | 6,832 |
What does an investor pay for MPC today?
The P/E ratio compares the share price with annual earnings, but refining earnings move with crack spreads—the gap between the value of fuels and the crude used to make them. MPC’s refining margin was $36.33 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, versus $17.58 a year earlier. That improvement helps explain why a low forward P/E may depend on unusually favorable conditions.