Leidos stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted forecast is $139.33 in October 2027. It hinges on award conversion, Health margins, defense deliveries and debt reduction.
Where could Leidos's shares go?
The weighted forecast is $139.33 in October 2027, a +4% return. It reaches $176.06 in October 2029, a +34% return. The bear case has a 27% probability. The base case has a 53% probability. The bull case has a 20% probability.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27% | 119.35 (-11%) | 109.21 (-17%) | 104.60 (-19%) |
| Base | 53% | 136.25 (+1%) | 156.32 (+18%) | 178.79 (+36%) |
| Bull | 20% | 174.46 (+30%) | 218.25 (+63%) | 265.31 (+100%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 139.33 (+4%) | 155.98 (+17%) | 176.06 (+34%) |
What has to go right for Leidos's forecast?
The bear case requires weaker federal awards, a less profitable VA renewal and continued Health pressure. Fixed-price overruns and Entrust debt then restrict cash for buybacks and raise the risk premium. That path leads to $119.35 in October 2027 and $104.60 by October 2029. Its probability is 27% because 87% of revenue depends on U.S. government contracts, while most backlog remains unfunded and Health revenue recently fell 7.6%.
The bull case requires submitted proposals to become funded orders, defense production to scale near expected cost and Health margins to stabilize. Strong cash generation then reduces debt and supports larger repurchases, while evidence of investment returns permits a rerating. This path leads to $174.46 initially and $265.31 by October 2029. Its probability is 20% because award timing, production execution and investment returns remain unproven.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 1,523 (1,419 / 1,625) | 1,639 (1,428 / 1,823) | 1,763 (1,437 / 1,999) |
| Shares (millions) | 123 (125 / 121) | 121 (124 / 117) | 118 (124 / 113) |
| Dividends per share | 1.80 (1.72 / 1.88) | 1.90 (1.72 / 2.06) | 2.00 (1.76 / 2.26) |
| Price to earnings | 11.00 (10.50 / 13.00) | 11.50 (9.50 / 14.00) | 12.00 (9.00 / 15.00) |
How much cash does Leidos really make?
Stock compensation was $95 million in fiscal 2025. Treating it as an economic cost leaves real free cash flow of $1.53 billion, because employees received value without an immediate cash payment. That measure should be read beside buybacks: some repurchases may offset shares issued to employees rather than reduce the owners’ share of the business. Cash strength now leads to the question of how much debt the balance sheet can carry.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,750 | 1,435 | 1,187 | 992 | 1,033 |
| − Capital spending | 125 | 149 | 207 | 129 | 104 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,625 | 1,286 | 980 | 863 | 929 |
| − Stock pay | 95 | 85 | 77 | 73 | 67 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,530 | 1,201 | 903 | 790 | 862 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is lower in 2023 and 2021 because it used older figures before later accounting presentation changes, not because it found extra cash costs.
What does an investor pay for Leidos today?
The table sets out the current share price, market and enterprise value, valuation multiples, cash-flow yield and dividend yield.