General Dynamics stock forecast
General Dynamics's weighted forecast reaches $351.85 in October 2027. General Dynamics's forecast hinges on Gulfstream deliveries, shipyard throughput and cash conversion.
Where could General Dynamics's shares go?
GD’s weighted forecast reaches $351.85 in October 2027 and $381.13 in October 2029, hinging on Gulfstream deliveries, shipyard throughput and cash conversion. Management promises $55,700 million of 2026 revenue and diluted EPS of $16.80–$16.90. It expects 160 Gulfstream deliveries, a 14.7% Aerospace margin and a 7.4% Marine Systems margin. Free cash flow conversion is expected at about 105%, although second-half cash will be lighter amid investment, pensions, taxes and use of prior advances.
The weighted prices imply a 6% return including dividends at the first date and a 19% return at the last. Scenario probabilities are 25% bear, 57% base and 18% bull. The October 30, 2026 earnings call tests Marine milestones, Gulfstream deliveries and heavier second-half cash demands. By October 2027–2028, supplier flow and earned hours must improve shipyard throughput without margin pressure. By October 2028–2029, funded backlog must become sales and free cash flow. The investment rests on turning production progress and backlog into cash without sacrificing margins.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 293.45 (-11 %) | 277.02 (-14 %) | 268.54 (-15 %) |
| Base | 57 % | 353.51 (+7 %) | 362.89 (+12 %) | 370.94 (+16 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 427.68 (+29 %) | 492.04 (+50 %) | 569.77 (+75 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 351.85 (+6 %) | 364.67 (+12 %) | 381.13 (+19 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a promise that the share price will reach that amount.
How much cash does General Dynamics really make?
Operating cash exceeded net income, and free cash flow represented about 94% of earnings after capital spending. That is useful, but stock compensation preserves cash while imposing a cost on shareholders, so a stricter measure deducts it.
Because 76% of revenue was recognized over time in 2024, these timing gaps matter. A large Spanish collection coincided with repayment of an advance, while tax changes improved payment timing. By July 2026, net unbilled receivables had risen to $9,255 million from $8,380 million at year-end, showing why reported revenue and collected cash must be checked together.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,120 | 4,112 | 4,710 | 4,579 | 4,271 |
| Of which, freed from working capital | 192 | 844 | 1,116 | 681 | |
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 850 | ||||
| − Capital spending | 1,161 | 916 | 904 | 1,114 | 887 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,959 | 3,196 | 3,806 | 3,465 | 3,384 |
| − Stock pay | 196 | 183 | 181 | 165 | 126 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,763 | 3,013 | 3,625 | 3,300 | 3,258 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares uses no cash today but gives away part of the company.
What do investors pay for General Dynamics?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how much investors pay for each dollar of earnings per share. A trailing P/E uses the last twelve months; a forward P/E uses the next twelve months. The lower forward multiple implies expected earnings growth if the share price does not change. But GD’s earnings include estimates. Contract-cost revisions added $0.46 to diluted EPS in 2025, and a revised estimate of the cost to finish a vehicle contract can change reported profit before the customer pays anything new.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 337.03 |
| Market value (calculated) | 91,185.89 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 94,368.89 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 20.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 18.1x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 1.7x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 3.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.1% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.9% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company’s debt and subtracts its cash, giving a fuller estimate of what the business costs to buy.