Key dividend: payment and coverage
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Key pays $0.82 per share, with a base-case path to $0.84 and $0.86. Its earnings covered dividends and buybacks in 2025, while capital pressure could still raise cut risk.
How much does Key pay in dividends?
The dividend starts at $0.82 per share because the declared quarterly payment is $0.205. The base case raises it to $0.84 in the second year and $0.86 in the third, below the implied earnings recovery because management gives no growth commitment. The bear case cuts it to $0.61 and holds it there. The bull case raises it to $0.90 and then $0.98. Stability since 2023 and management’s expectation of continued quarterly dividends support the base, while capital pressure explains the bear risk.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Dividends, per share | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| = Kept, per share | 0.52 | 0.02 | 1.13 | 0.67 | |
| = Paid out more, per share | 1.14 |
What this means. In 2024, the company paid shareholders $1.14 per share even though it lost $0.32 per share, so it paid out more than it earned.
Is Key's dividend covered by its cash?
By 2025, earnings again covered dividends and buybacks. Yet average diluted shares rose from 949.561 million in 2024 to 1,107.994 million in 2025, showing how much the new issuance outweighed the resumed repurchases.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Earnings for common shareholders | 1,685 | -306 | 821 | 1,793 | 2,506 |
| − Dividends declared on common shares | 911 | 784 | 768 | 736 | 717 |
| − Share buybacks | 200 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 1,144 |
| = Kept to grow and build capital | 574 | 15 | 1,057 | 645 | |
| = Paid out more than it earned | 1,090 |
What could change Key's dividend?
During 2028–2029, higher commercial provisions, weaker earnings, or a falling CET1 ratio would constrain buybacks and increase the probability of a dividend cut. Conversely, controlled credit, stronger transaction activity, and recurring fee growth would support the bull case. By October 2029, the durability of those earnings and returns will determine whether the multiple stays near 1.30x or moves materially lower or higher.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book value | 15,500 (14,400 / 15,500) | 15,900 (14,100 / 15,900) | 16,400 (14,200 / 16,600) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,012 (1,011 / 1,008) | 976 (986 / 962) | 943 (971 / 922) |
| Dividends per share | 0.82 (0.82 / 0.82) | 0.84 (0.61 / 0.90) | 0.86 (0.61 / 0.98) |
| Price to book value | 1.30 (1.00 / 1.45) | 1.30 (0.85 / 1.55) | 1.30 (0.75 / 1.65) |
What this means. The price to book value compares the share price with the value of the company's assets per share.
What is Key's dividend yield today?
At $20.81 on October 21, 2026, Key’s common shares had a market value of $22,020.64256 million. Investors paid 11.4 times the last twelve months’ earnings and 11.1 times expected next-twelve-month earnings. Because those figures are close, the price assumes steady rather than spectacular near-term growth.