PNC stock forecast
PNC’s weighted price is $223.31 in October 2027. It hinges on credit losses staying controlled.
Where could PNC’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $223.31 in October 2027. That represents +8%. By October 2029, the weighted price is $253.01, representing +30%. The bear case has a 27% probability. The base case has 53%. The bull case has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 187.67 (-9 %) | 181.56 (-8 %) | 174.44 (-8 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 228.83 (+10 %) | 244.18 (+22 %) | 260.49 (+34 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 256.79 (+23 %) | 295.95 (+46 %) | 339.28 (+71 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 223.31 (+8 %) | 237.62 (+18 %) | 253.01 (+30 %) |
What has to go right for PNC—and what could go wrong?
The bear case reduces earnings through incremental after-tax credit losses of $2,000 million in the first interval and $2,300 million in the second. The final increment is $2,500 million. That reflects rising criticized CRE loans, from about $5.3 billion to $6.1 billion. The bull case assumes earnings of $9,200 million initially and $10,000 million next, reaching $10,800 million as loan growth and fees exceed the base path.
The base multiple stays at 1.50x, near today's level. The bear declines to 1.05x, while the bull rises to 1.85x. Stable credit supports the base; weaker returns, funding pressure or poor integration drive the bear; durable commercial growth and productivity support the bull.
How much does PNC earn and give back?
The base assumes common earnings of $8,500 million in the first interval and $9,000 million in the second. They reach $9,500 million in the final interval. Dividends subtract $3,200 million initially and $3,300 million thereafter. Buybacks subtract $2,400 million, $2,500 million and $2,700 million. The assumptions reflect the annualized Q3 earnings run rate, FirstBank's expected contribution of about $1 to 2027 EPS, and guidance for revenue growth ahead of expense growth.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 16.59 | 13.74 | 12.79 | 13.85 | 12.70 |
| − Dividends, per share | 6.65 | 6.34 | 6.14 | 5.80 | 4.83 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 3.38 | 1.72 | 1.62 | 9.06 | 2.53 |
| = Kept, per share | 6.68 | 5.76 | 5.09 | 5.40 | |
| = Paid out more, per share | 0.94 |
What this means. In 2022, PNC paid shareholders $0.94 more per share than it earned, so it kept no profit that year.
What does an investor pay for PNC today?
At $214.94 on October 16, 2026, PNC looks moderately priced on earnings, but that first impression needs a bank-specific test.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 214.94 |
| Market value (calculated) | 85,383.315202 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 11.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 11.3x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.5x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 2.0x |
What this means. The share price is the closing price from October 15, even though the table is dated October 16.