Imperial earnings: date, guidance and results
Imperial's next results are expected on October 30, 2026. The one thing to watch is second-half production.
What has Imperial guided for the year?
For 2026, management guides capital and exploration spending to C$2,000–2,200 million. Upstream production guidance is 441,000–460,000 boe/d, or barrels of oil equivalent produced per day; management expects the lower end. Refinery throughput guidance is 370,000–380,000 bbl/d, or barrels processed per day. Utilization is 85%–88%. By 2027, Kearl targets US$18 a barrel in unit cash costs and Cold Lake US$13.
| The period guided | Low | High | The date it was given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total capital and exploration expenditures | Year to Dec 2026 | 2,000 | 2,200 | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Upstream production (boe/d) | Year to Dec 2026 | 441,000 | 460,000 | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Refinery throughput (bbl/d) | Year to Dec 2026 | 370,000 | 380,000 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Refinery utilization (percent) | Year to Dec 2026 | 85.0% | 88.0% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Kearl unit cash cost target (US$/barrel) | Year to Dec 2027 | 18 | 18 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Cold Lake unit cash cost target (US$/barrel) | Year to Dec 2027 | 13 | 13 | Jan 30, 2026 |
Did Imperial keep its past promises?
Operating promises provide a better test of execution than share-price movements. Imperial said the Leming redevelopment at Cold Lake would start producing in late 2025, and it reported first oil in that period. But it later cut its refinery-utilisation guidance after unplanned downtime and rail difficulties at Strathcona.
What have Imperial's revenue and profit done?
Revenue rose from C$37,508 million in 2021 to C$59,413 million in 2022, then fell to C$46,918 million in 2025. In 2025, production, refinery throughput and petroleum-product sales all increased, yet revenue declined because prices received for much of the output were lower.
Net income declined from C$4,790 million in 2024 to C$3,268 million in 2025, and net margin fell from 9.3% to 7.0%. The businesses have different economics: crude prices drive Upstream, refining spreads drive Downstream, and chemical margins drive Chemicals.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15,981 | 12,416 | 11,250 | 11,994 | 11,208 | 12,466 | 12,547 | 13,215 |
| Net income | 2,190 | 940 | 492 | 539 | 949 | 1,288 | 1,225 | 1,237 |
| EPS, diluted | 4.52 | 1.94 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.86 | 2.52 | 2.37 | 2.33 |
What should you watch in Imperial's next results?
The useful evidence will be second-half production, refinery recovery, and progress toward management’s lower-end upstream expectation. Syncrude’s deferred coker turnaround was scheduled for late August and about 50 days. Kearl’s flotation columns were expected to begin producing in the fourth quarter, while Strathcona’s rail expansion was targeted for year-end. Together, these events should separate temporary disruption from a problem lasting into 2027.