Imperial dividend: history and cash coverage
Imperial pays an annualized C$3.48 per share, implied by the latest C$0.87 quarterly payment. Across the period, Imperial generated C$23,986 million and paid shareholders C$23,654 million, about 98.6% of the total.
How much does Imperial pay in dividends?
Dividends begin at the annualized C$3.48 rate implied by the latest C$0.87 quarterly payment. The base case raises them to C$3.84, then C$4.20 and C$4.56. That is slower than the latest increase, but consistent with 31 consecutive years of growth and strong 2025 free cash flow. The bear case freezes the dividend at C$3.48; the bull case reaches C$4.20, C$4.80 and C$5.40 as cash generation remains strong.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.78 | 2.33 | 1.92 | 1.33 | 0.99 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 0.10 | 0.33 | 2.63 | 1.96 | |
| = Paid out more than FCF, per share | 5.17 |
Is Imperial’s dividend covered by its cash?
Free cash flow is the cash left after operating cash pays for capital spending. Across the five-year period, Imperial generated C$23,986 million and paid shareholders C$23,654 million. That was about 98.6% of the total. The pattern was to improve assets already owned and distribute the balance, rather than use the period to make acquisitions.
The timing was uneven. In 2023, shareholder payments exceeded that year’s free cash flow because Imperial also used cash accumulated earlier and other financing movements. Cash fell, and net debt rose. That shows why one year’s payout cannot be judged from one year’s operating cash alone.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 4,685 | 4,092 | 1,927 | 8,934 | 4,348 |
| − Dividends paid | 1,401 | 1,238 | 1,103 | 851 | 706 |
| − Share buybacks | 3,234 | 2,681 | 3,800 | 6,395 | 2,245 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 50 | 173 | 1,688 | 1,397 | |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 2,976 | ||||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 98.9% | 95.8% | 254.4% | 81.1% | 67.9% |
What could change Imperial’s dividend?
The forecast would move toward the bear case in 2027 if production stays near the lower end of guidance, refinery downtime persists or rail constraints reduce throughput. Weaker oil prices would add pressure by 2027–2028.
What is Imperial’s dividend yield against its share price?
The weighted price is C$187.50 in October 2027, a 9% return including dividends. It reaches C$209.90 in October 2028, a 24% return. By October 2029, C$243.04 represents a 45% return. The bear and bull outcomes then span C$117.56 to C$422.58. Today’s reference price is C$175.76.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 175.76 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.5% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.0% |