Suncor stock forecast
Suncor's weighted forecast is C$59.17 in October 2027 and C$92.94 in October 2029, with 35% probability to bear, 45% to base and 20% to bull. It hinges on production recovery, margins and whether cash generation can support capital spending and buybacks.
Where could Suncor's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is C$59.17 in October 2027, a 40% loss including dividends, and C$92.94 in October 2029, a 3% loss including dividends. The cases assign 35% probability to bear, 45% to base and 20% to bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35 % | 9.13 (-89 %) | 19.40 (-77 %) | 24.40 (-70 %) |
| Base | 45 % | 67.89 (-32 %) | 86.16 (-12 %) | 95.07 (-0 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 127.09 (+26 %) | 166.23 (+66 %) | 208.08 (+110 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 59.17 (-40 %) | 78.81 (-19 %) | 92.94 (-3 %) |
What could make Suncor's forecast go right or wrong?
The bear row assumes weak prices, margins and operations, while the bull row requires production above the 2026 guide and strong refining economics at the same time. The forecast therefore places bear EBITDA at C$4,810M in 2027 and bull EBITDA at C$20,190M, with the table showing how those gaps widen.
The base case starts at C$67.89 and ends at C$95.07. Its 45% probability is highest because gradual recovery has more support than either prolonged disruption or simultaneous above-plan performance, but the rising base net debt leaves limited valuation cushion.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 13,664 (4,810 / 20,190) | 16,127 (7,595 / 23,195) | 16,936 (8,836 / 25,586) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,104 (1,121 / 1,079) | 1,056 (1,096 / 1,014) | 1,013 (1,073 / 959) |
| Dividends per share | 2.40 (2.40 / 2.52) | 2.52 (1.92 / 2.76) | 2.64 (1.92 / 3.00) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 6.00 (4.50 / 7.00) | 6.20 (4.80 / 7.40) | 6.30 (5.00 / 7.80) |
| Net debt | 7,062 (11,402 / 4,237) | 9,003 (15,191 / 3,021) | 10,356 (18,004 / 88.00) |
How much cash does Suncor really make?
Adjusted funds from operations removes non-cash working-capital timing. Free funds flow then subtracts capital spending, including capitalized interest. A stricter cash calculation also subtracts lease payments, because leases claim cash even when the company’s measure leaves them outside free funds flow.
The 2023 acquisition-related tax benefit also lifted cash temporarily. The useful conclusion is not that one measure is false: company free funds flow shows management’s operating framework, while cash-based free cash flow shows more of the money left after current obligations.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 12,781 | 15,960 | 12,344 | 15,680 | 11,764 |
| − Capital spending | 5,856 | 6,483 | 5,936 | 5,120 | 4,555 |
| − Lease payments | 690 | 471 | 331 | 329 | 325 |
| = Free cash flow | 6,235 | 9,006 | 6,077 | 10,231 | 6,884 |
| − Stock pay | 8 | -57 | 108 | 328 | 205 |
| = Real free cash flow | 6,227 | 9,063 | 5,969 | 9,903 | 6,679 |