Imperial stock forecast (IMO.TO)
Imperial's weighted price is C$187.50 in October 2027 and reaches C$243.04 by October 2029, while bear and bull outcomes span C$117.56 to C$422.58. It hinges on durable production, lower costs and reliable refinery operations.
Where could Imperial's shares be in each forecast year?
The weighted price is C$187.50 in October 2027, a 9% return including dividends. It reaches C$209.90 in October 2028, a 24% return. By October 2029, C$243.04 represents a 45% return. The bear and bull outcomes then span C$117.56 to C$422.58. Today’s reference price is C$175.76.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 105.74 (-38 %) | 94.83 (-42 %) | 117.56 (-27 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 193.27 (+12 %) | 214.76 (+27 %) | 234.80 (+41 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 273.81 (+58 %) | 340.36 (+99 %) | 422.58 (+149 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 187.50 (+9 %) | 209.90 (+24 %) | 243.04 (+45 %) |
What has to go right—and what could go wrong for Imperial?
By 2028–2029, delayed project ramps or missed Kearl and Cold Lake cost targets would weaken cash flow and slow buybacks. Conversely, stronger production from Leming and Grand Rapids, improved refinery reliability and progress toward the cost targets would move the forecast toward the bull case. Faster buybacks would provide a further upside signal.
How much cash does Imperial really make?
Cash must also maintain the productive business. Imperial spent C$2,005 million on capital in 2025. After capital spending and lease payments, its narrower free-cash-flow reconciliation produced C$4,685 million, before an analytical deduction for stock compensation.
Imperial’s own free-cash-flow measure was C$4,816 million because it includes different investing movements. That difference is a definition bridge, not extra recurring earnings. Sustaining capital matters especially at Kearl and Cold Lake: mine progression and replacement wells may preserve output rather than increase it. Dividends are safe only after those needs are covered.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,708 | 5,981 | 3,734 | 10,482 | 5,476 |
| − Capital spending | 2,005 | 1,867 | 1,785 | 1,526 | 1,108 |
| − Lease payments | 18 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,685 | 4,092 | 1,927 | 8,934 | 4,348 |
| − Stock pay | 212 | 116 | 52 | 103 | 89 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,473 | 3,976 | 1,875 | 8,831 | 4,259 |
What does an investor pay for Imperial today?
The trailing P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, compares the share price with recent earnings. The forward P/E uses expected earnings instead, so it falls when analysts expect the denominator to rise. Imperial earned C$3.268 billion in 2025, after C$4.790 billion in 2024 and C$7.340 billion in 2022. The forward multiple signals an expectation of stronger earnings, not proof that the shares are cheap.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 175.76 |
| Market value (calculated) | 84,996.26 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 20.60x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.23x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.3% |