Canadian Natural Resources stock forecast
Canadian Natural Resources' probability-weighted price is C$51.82 in October 2027. Canadian Natural Resources' outcome hinges on commodity prices.
Where could Canadian Natural Resources' shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is C$51.82 in October 2027, C$45.88 in October 2028 and C$50.53 in October 2029. Including dividends, those figures represent returns of negative 23%, negative 28% and negative 18%. By October 2029, the bear-to-bull range runs from C$9.77 to C$120.53.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 27.23 (-58 %) | 4.21 (-87 %) | 9.77 (-76 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 55.78 (-18 %) | 52.54 (-18 %) | 53.68 (-13 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 86.46 (+26 %) | 104.77 (+55 %) | 120.53 (+82 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 51.82 (-23 %) | 45.88 (-28 %) | 50.53 (-18 %) |
What could move Canadian Natural Resources' forecast?
EBITDA is C$19,550 million in the first base window, dips in the second, and recovers to C$18,620 million in the third. The bear case falls to C$6,960 million in October 2028, while the bull case reaches C$27,410 million by October 2029. The range reflects a historical proxy that moved from C$16,151 million in 2021 to C$23,119 million in 2022 before settling near C$18 billion. Production guidance supports modest growth, but the unusually strong Q2 2026 comparison was not a permanent earnings rate. The bull case additionally needs contained Canadian discounts and successful NRUTT capacity additions.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 19,550 (13,330 / 24,660) | 18,390 (6,960 / 26,530) | 18,620 (9,600 / 27,410) |
| Shares (millions) | 2,030 (2,048 / 2,011) | 2,001 (2,034 / 1,967) | 1,975 (2,019 / 1,929) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 6.50 (5.50 / 7.50) | 6.50 (5.00 / 8.00) | 6.50 (5.50 / 8.50) |
| Net debt | 13,840 (17,544 / 11,096) | 14,372 (26,237 / 6,135) | 15,002 (33,074 / 457) |
How much cash does Canadian Natural Resources really make?
Stock-based pay adds another economic adjustment. Deducting C$180 million under the stated calculation leaves C$8,858 million, but that is an analytical measure rather than a separately reported cash balance.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 9,038 | 7,775 | 7,185 | 14,493 | 11,018 |
| Stock-based pay | 180 | 279 | 491 | 804 | 514 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 8,858 | 7,496 | 6,694 | 13,689 | 10,504 |
| Free cash flow per share (calculated) | 4.31 | 3.63 | 3.26 | 6.31 | 4.64 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 4.22 | 3.50 | 3.04 | 5.96 | 4.43 |
What does an investor pay for Canadian Natural Resources?
The trailing P/E is 12.6x, while the forward P/E is 13.4x. P/E divides the share price by earnings, so it can fall when oil prices temporarily lift the denominator. In 2025, reported earnings were C$10.82 billion, while adjusted operating earnings were C$7.44 billion. The adjusted figure better describes the business’s repeatable operating performance.