Intact earnings: next results and guidance
Intact's next results are expected on November 3, 2026. The key thing to watch is whether ordinary claims remain healthy after catastrophe losses.
What has Intact guided for the year?
Management targets annual growth of 10% in net operating income per share, or NOIPS, and a return on equity 500 basis points above the industry. NOIPS is earnings from ongoing operations divided among the shares. Return on equity measures profit against shareholders’ capital; 500 basis points means five percentage points. The Canadian property-and-casualty industry earned a 17.1% return on equity in 2025, but Intact’s outperformance target will move with its competitors.
| Period it covers | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal auto Canada — Sub-95% combined ratio | Next 12 months | 95.0% | 95.0% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Personal property Canada — Sub-95% combined ratio even with severe weather events | Next 12 months | 95.0% | 95.0% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Commercial lines Canada — Low-90s or better combined ratio | Next 12 months | Feb 10, 2026 | ||
| UK&I — Combined ratio evolving towards 90% | Next 12 months | 90.0% | 90.0% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| US — Low 90s or better combined ratio | Next 12 months | Feb 10, 2026 | ||
| Consolidated CAT losses (C$ billions, net of reinsurance) | 2026 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Feb 10, 2026 |
Did Intact keep its promises?
Management promises to grow net operating income per share by 10% annually and beat industry return on equity by 5 percentage points. The reported long-term record showed 12% annualized operating-income-per-share growth and 6.7 percentage points of return-on-equity outperformance. That supports the record, although the UK profitability goal still required further progress.
How have Intact's results trended over the last eight quarters?
The figures show broadly flat insurance revenue, while underwriting income and the combined ratio reveal whether the core engine is improving. The combined ratio was 88.2% in 2025, versus 94.2% in 2023. Diluted EPS rebounded from C$6.99 in 2023 to C$18.35 in 2025, while investment income was C$1,632 million.
The eight-quarter record shows that Intact can move quickly from excellent underwriting to loss-making performance. The subsequent catastrophe estimate reinforces that Q2 was not merely a historical weather interruption. The next test is whether claims and UK profitability recover without relying only on quieter weather.
| Quarter to Jun 2026 | Quarter to Mar 2026 | Quarter to Dec 2025 | Quarter to Sep 2025 | Quarter to Jun 2025 | Quarter to Mar 2025 | Quarter to Dec 2024 | Quarter to Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined ratio | 94.9% | 91.3% | 85.9% | 89.8% | 86.1% | 91.3% | 86.5% | 103.9% |
| Core earnings (company's measure) | 561 | 770 | 979 | 797 | 935 | 717 | 881 | 182 |
| Net income | 720 | 752 | 961 | 861 | 867 | 676 | 667 | 207 |
| EPS, diluted | 3.90 | 4.12 | 5.24 | 4.73 | 4.70 | 3.69 | 3.58 | 1.06 |
What should I watch in Intact's next results?
The November results will show whether another costly catastrophe quarter damages earnings, capital or the growth plan.