Intact stock forecast
Intact's weighted forecast reaches C$242.15 by October 2029. Intact's outcome hinges on sustained underwriting, catastrophe control and UK&I execution.
Where could Intact's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast sees limited near-term upside, but a positive three-year outcome if Intact executes its plan. The probability-weighted price is C$210.73 in October 2027, C$223.11 in October 2028 and C$242.15 in October 2029, equivalent to returns including dividends of -10%, -3% and +8%. By the last date, the bear-to-bull range is C$113.25 to C$406.41, against today’s C$242.41.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 140.02 (-40%) | 117.99 (-46%) | 113.25 (-46%) |
| Base | 52% | 229.36 (-3%) | 244.21 (+6%) | 259.65 (+16%) |
| Bull | 18% | 274.76 (+16%) | 337.38 (+45%) | 406.41 (+77%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 210.73 (-10%) | 223.11 (-3%) | 242.15 (+8%) |
What has to go right for Intact, and what could go wrong?
The bear case gives C$2,600 million, then C$2,450 million and C$2,500 million, because catastrophe losses already exceed annual guidance on a trailing basis and UK&I reported a 112.0% combined ratio. The bull case gives C$3,200 million, C$3,650 million and C$4,100 million, assuming weather normalizes, UK&I improves faster and technology benefits reduce costs. The range also reflects earnings volatility: net income fell sharply in 2023 before recovering in the following years.
How much cash does Intact really make?
An insurer collects premiums now, promises to pay covered losses later, and invests the money while it waits. Its underwriting result is profitable when claims and expenses consume less than the premiums collected. In Q2 2026, Intact produced C$305 million of underwriting income and C$405 million of operating investment income. Both businesses matter to valuation.
Conventional free cash flow is a poor guide because premiums arrive before claims are paid. The better test is whether holding-company cash, subsidiary capital and investment liquidity remain adequate. The valuation must now distinguish temporary bad weather from a lasting pricing problem.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance revenue | 26,950 | 26,523 | 25,507 | 25,914 | |
| Underwriting income | 2,717 | 1,689 | 1,183 | 1,598 | 1,787 |
| Net investment income | 1,632 | 1,559 | 1,346 | 931 | 706 |
| Core earnings (company's measure) | 3,428 | 2,576 | 2,014 | 2,030 | 2,017 |
| Net income | 3,365 | 2,297 | 1,316 | 2,454 | 2,067 |
| Dividend per share | 5.32 | 4.84 | 4.40 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
What does an investor pay today for Intact?
The reported trailing P/E is 13.5x, compared with 13.9x on core earnings and 14.9x on forward earnings. The higher forward multiple suggests that prospective earnings may be lower, depending on the definitions used. Conventional enterprise value measures are less useful because Intact’s investments support future claims rather than represent spare cash available to shareholders. Debt-to-capital, regulatory capital and investment quality matter more.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 242.41 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 13.5x |
| P/E on core earnings, last 12 months (calculated) | 13.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.9x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.2x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.4% |