Intact dividend: coverage and yield
Intact pays a C$1.47 quarterly dividend. Its earnings available to common shareholders covered C$3,916 million of common dividends across 2021–2025, while the memo says coverage should be judged through holding-company cash, subsidiary capital and investment liquidity rather than conventional free cash flow.
How much does Intact pay its shareholders?
Capital returns became more active in 2026. Intact spent C$181 million on buybacks in Q2 and maintained a C$1.47 quarterly dividend. Buybacks can increase each remaining shareholder’s ownership, but only create value if the purchase price is sensible and better uses of capital are unavailable. That makes operating performance, especially in the UK and Ireland, the next test.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 18.35 | 12.36 | 6.99 | 13.63 | 12.40 |
| Dividend per share | 5.32 | 4.84 | 4.40 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Stock pay per share (calculated) | 1.01 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 0.91 | 0.59 |
Is Intact’s dividend covered by its cash?
The Canadian regulator OSFI sets a supervisory capital target of 150% for federally regulated property-and-casualty insurers. Across 2021–2025, earnings available to common shareholders totalled C$11,122 million. Common dividends were C$3,916 million, while buybacks added C$372 million. The calculated remainder was C$6,834 million, but that accounting remainder was not a free acquisition fund: it supported investments, claims obligations and capital strength.
Conventional free cash flow is a poor guide because premiums arrive before claims are paid. The better test is whether holding-company cash, subsidiary capital and investment liquidity remain adequate. The valuation must now distinguish temporary bad weather from a lasting pricing problem.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends declared on common shares | 947 | 863 | 778 | 702 | 626 |
| Shares bought back | 198 | 24 | 0 | 150 | 0 |
| Kept to grow and to build capital (calculated) | 2,130 | 1,320 | 454 | 1,542 | 1,388 |
| Paid out with buybacks, share of net income available to common shareholders (calculated) | 35.0% | 40.2% | 63.1% | 35.6% | 31.1% |
What could change Intact’s dividend?
Dividends rise in the base case from the current C$1.47 quarterly rate to annual payments of C$6.33, C$6.96 and C$7.66. The path follows the company’s 21-year record of increases and roughly 10% historical growth. The bear case holds at C$5.88 each year to preserve capital after catastrophe losses. The bull case reaches C$8.11 by 2029, requiring faster growth than history and several favorable underwriting years.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,980 (2,600 / 3,200) | 3,278 (2,450 / 3,650) | 3,606 (2,500 / 4,100) |
| Shares (millions) | 175 (176 / 175) | 174 (176 / 173) | 174 (177 / 172) |
| Dividends per share | 6.33 (5.88 / 6.52) | 6.96 (5.88 / 7.24) | 7.66 (5.88 / 8.11) |
| Price to earnings | 13.50 (9.50 / 15.00) | 13.00 (8.50 / 16.00) | 12.50 (8.00 / 17.00) |
What is Intact’s dividend yield against its share price?
The 2.4% dividend yield adds to the return, provided profits generate usable capital. Intact reported C$3,761 million of total capital margin and a 16.2% adjusted debt-to-capital ratio. The central conclusion is simple: the price assumes durable underwriting, investment income and high returns, while leaving shareholders exposed if the valuation multiple eventually falls.