Chubb stock forecast
Chubb's weighted price is $349.07 in October 2027, a 1% return including dividends, and $397.18 in October 2029, a 17% return. Chubb's forecast hinges on casualty prices versus loss-cost trends during 2027–2029.
Where could Chubb's shares go in each scenario?
The weighted price is $349.07 in October 2027, a 1% return including dividends. It is $397.18 in October 2029, a 17% return. The bear case has 25% probability, the base case 55% and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 282.00 (-18 %) | 254.55 (-25 %) | 225.55 (-32 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 363.03 (+5 %) | 385.98 (+13 %) | 408.58 (+20 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 394.49 (+14 %) | 480.82 (+40 %) | 580.35 (+70 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 349.07 (+1 %) | 372.09 (+9 %) | 397.18 (+17 %) |
What has to go right for Chubb, and what could go wrong?
The bear case starts at $10,700M and falls to $10,000M. It then falls to $9,200M as casualty inflation, catastrophes and adverse reserves outweigh savings and investment income. The bull case starts at $11,300M, then reaches $12,400M and $13,600M as pricing improves, catastrophes remain manageable and Life and Benefits grow profitably.
How much cash does Chubb really make?
Cash flow adds another test. Adjusted operating cash flow fell to $13,906 million in 2025 despite higher earnings. The $158 million adverse development in corporate run-off reserves in Q2 2026 shows why older liabilities can still consume capital.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&C net premiums written | 47,563 | 45,142 | 41,896 | 38,112 | 35,391 |
| Adjusted net investment income | 6,947 | 6,376 | 5,343 | 4,023 | 3,719 |
| Adjusted operating cash flow | 13,906 | 15,904 | 12,182 | 11,258 |
What this means. Global property and casualty net premiums written is lower because it leaves out Agriculture, while property and casualty net premiums written includes it.
What does an investor pay for Chubb today?
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says investors pay $12.40 for each dollar of recent profit. On core earnings, which remove specified investment and accounting effects, the multiple is 12.0x. Neither measure automatically represents a normal year.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 350.15 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 12.4x |
| P/E on core earnings, last 12 months (calculated) | 12.0x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.8x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.2% |
What this means. The price-to-earnings numbers show how many dollars investors pay for each dollar of the company's profit, so a lower number generally means the shares are cheaper relative to profit.