Fairfax stock forecast
Fairfax’s weighted path reaches CAD 2,511.81 by October 2027, an 8% total return including dividends, and CAD 3,246.63 by October 2029, a 41% return. The outcome turns on underwriting ratios, reserve development and catastrophe losses as pricing softens.
Where could Fairfax's shares be by 2029?
Fairfax’s weighted path reaches CAD 2,511.81 by October 2027, an 8% total return including dividends. It reaches CAD 2,842.90 by October 2028, a 22% return. By October 2029, the weighted price is CAD 3,246.63, a 41% return.
The 2029 range is wide, from CAD 1,754.95 in the bear case to CAD 4,892.47 in the bull case. The current price is CAD 2,354.03. The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case. The base case receives 53%. The bull case receives 17%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 1778.18 (-24 %) | 1724.06 (-26 %) | 1754.95 (-24 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 2729.24 (+17 %) | 3131.25 (+35 %) | 3563.06 (+54 %) |
| Bull | 17 % | 3128.58 (+34 %) | 3918.36 (+69 %) | 4892.47 (+111 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 2511.81 (+8 %) | 2842.90 (+22 %) | 3246.63 (+41 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each case more or less influence based on its probability, so it is not a separate prediction.
What has to go right or wrong for Fairfax?
The base case therefore combines operating growth with selective repurchases and a stable valuation. The bear case assumes weaker earnings, a higher share count and a lower multiple. The bull case assumes faster book-value growth, heavier repurchases and a rising premium to book.
How much does Fairfax earn and give back?
Fairfax earned underwriting profit of 1,816.6 on average float of 37,362.3, producing a 4.9% benefit. Under its cost-of-float convention, the figure appears as negative 4.9% because profitable underwriting means Fairfax was paid to hold the funds. If underwriting loses money, float becomes costly funding.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net premiums earned | 26,000.9 | 24,570.8 | 22,251.2 | 20,663.8 | 16,090.2 |
| Float | 39,344.3 | 35,380.3 | 33,415.9 | 29,083.7 | 25,936.8 |
| Average float | 37,362.3 | 34,398.1 | 31,249.8 | 27,775.2 | 24,320.9 |
| Benefit of float (%) | -4.9% | -5.2% | -4.9% | -4.0% | -3.3% |
| Interest and dividends | 2,574.0 | 2,511.9 | 1,896.2 | 961.8 | 640.8 |
| Share of profit of associates | 816.1 | 956.3 | 1,022.2 | 1,022.4 | 402.0 |
What this means. The negative percentage for benefit of float is good for the insurer: it means the insurer effectively earns money by holding customers’ premiums before paying claims.
What does an investor pay for Fairfax today?
The trailing P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, is 8.1 times. Investors therefore pay C$8.10 for each C$1 of recent earnings. The 0.9% dividend yield adds cash income, but neither measure explains how much profit comes from durable underwriting or temporary investment gains.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 2,354.03 |
| Market value (calculated) | 47,009.7 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 8.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 9.1x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.3x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.9% |
What this means. The dividend yield uses one yearly dividend payment, not four payments, because the company pays dividends once a year.