Allstate stock forecast
Allstate's weighted path reaches $264.54 in October 2027, $292.28 in October 2028 and $326.62 in October 2029. It hinges on profitable underwriting surviving catastrophe costs, reserve changes and softer pricing.
Where could Allstate's shares be by October 2029?
Allstate’s weighted path reaches $264.54 in October 2027, $292.28 in October 2028 and $326.62 in October 2029. These prices imply total returns of 8%, 21% and 37% with dividends. The final-date range is much wider: $106.29 in the bear case to $623.61 in the bull case, against today’s $247.88.
The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case, 50% to the base case and 20% to the bull case. The central path offers attractive upside, but the possible loss remains large because Allstate’s earnings have moved sharply with underwriting conditions.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 166.30 (-31 %) | 133.76 (-43 %) | 106.29 (-52 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 270.97 (+11 %) | 304.41 (+26 %) | 340.03 (+43 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 395.83 (+61 %) | 499.71 (+105 %) | 623.61 (+157 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 264.54 (+8 %) | 292.28 (+21 %) | 326.62 (+37 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Allstate?
The bear case uses $8,400 million, $7,500 million and $6,700 million as injury severity, catastrophes and weaker investment support overwhelm premium growth. The bull case uses $10,800 million, $11,880 million and $13,068 million if applications become persistent policies, severity stabilizes and reinsurance limits severe-event damage. The $1,650 million Q3 catastrophe estimate shows why catastrophe costs remain inside the forecast.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 9,600 (8,400 / 10,800) | 9,888 (7,500 / 11,880) | 10,185 (6,700 / 13,068) |
| Shares (millions) | 248 (253 / 246) | 244 (252 / 238) | 240 (252 / 231) |
| Dividends per share | 4.32 (4.32 / 4.32) | 4.54 (4.32 / 4.67) | 4.77 (4.32 / 5.04) |
| Price to earnings | 7.00 (5.00 / 9.00) | 7.50 (4.50 / 10.00) | 8.00 (4.00 / 11.00) |
How much cash does Allstate really make and give back?
A reserve is not cash in a separate account. It is an estimate of the eventual cost of claims, including claims not yet reported. As repair bills, medical evidence or lawsuits develop, the estimate can rise or fall, changing current profit before the related cash is paid. Allstate reported $10,110 million of operating cash flow in 2025, but reserve and premium-related movements make that cash flow unlike a retailer’s cash profit.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underwriting income | 8,694 | 3,153 | -2,090 | -2,782 | 1,785 |
| Net investment income | 3,449 | 3,092 | 2,478 | ||
| Net income | 10,240 | 4,524 | -376 | ||
| Dividend per share | 4.00 | 3.68 | 3.56 | 3.40 | 3.24 |
What does an investor pay for Allstate today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, compares a share price with earnings per share. In the second quarter of 2026, Allstate reported $3.2 billion of net income but $2.3 billion of adjusted net income. The difference mainly reflected gains from higher public-equity valuations, which can reverse without adding insurance customers or cash from policyholders. The useful question is therefore whether the low P/E reflects durable underwriting profit or a temporarily enlarged denominator.