HII dividend: cash coverage and yield
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: HII pays $1.41 per share quarterly; in 2025, free cash flow rebounded to $794 million against $368 million of shareholder payments. Coverage was less comfortable in 2024, when free cash flow was only $26 million while shareholder payments reached $368 million.
How much does HII pay in dividends over the years shown?
The board can pause buybacks more easily than dividends. HII increased cumulative buyback authorization to $3.8 billion in January 2024, but authorization does not require purchases. HII bought no shares in 2025 or the first half of 2026 while continuing investment and dividends. On October 21, 2026, it raised the quarterly dividend to $1.41 per share. That preserved flexibility, but left a recurring payment while shipyard demands remained high.
The new dividend rate is $5.64 annualized after the October 2026 increase. The base case grows it about 4% annually to $6.12 in 2029. The bear case holds it at $5.64 because cash remains pressured. The bull case reaches $6.82 through roughly 10% annual increases. The history of annual increases supports the base case, but free cash flow has ranged from $26 million to $794 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real free cash flow per share | 18.83 | 0.08 | 16.14 | 11.12 | 9.83 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 5.42 | 5.23 | 5.01 | 4.79 | 4.62 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 4.11 | 1.88 | 1.30 | 2.51 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 14.78 | 10.10 | 5.94 | 3.52 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow per share is higher because it subtracts related grants from equipment spending, while our count includes the full equipment spending.
How much would HII's dividend pay you?
$10,000 invested in HII at its 2.0% dividend yield (our report of October 28, 2026) pays $200.00 in the first year, before tax. If its dividend per share keeps changing 4.1% a year, as it did from 2021 to 2025, and the dividends are reinvested, year 10 pays $353.35, with $2,687.69 received in all.
Before tax. Past dividend growth is not a promise. Information only, not investment advice.
Is HII's dividend covered by its cash?
Cash generation was less comfortable in 2024. Free cash flow was only $26 million while shareholder payments reached $368 million, leaving a $342 million gap. Free cash flow rebounded to $794 million in 2025, partly because billing timing and lower cash taxes helped. Working capital is the temporary money tied up between paying workers and suppliers and collecting from a customer, so a large government payment can move across a year-end without changing the underlying work.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 794 | 26 | 678 | 482 | 429 |
| − Dividends paid | 213 | 206 | 200 | 192 | 186 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 162 | 75 | 52 | 101 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 581 | 403 | 238 | 142 | |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 342 | ||||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 26.8% | 1415.4% | 40.6% | 50.6% | 66.9% |
What this means. In 2024, the company paid shareholders 368 million dollars even though it generated only 26 million dollars of free cash flow, so it had to use savings or borrow money.
What could change HII's dividend?
The base case becomes stronger if throughput and capacity investment support revenue while annual free cash flow guidance is achieved despite quarterly working-capital swings. The bull case requires faster deliveries, fewer estimate revisions, funded awards and cash conversion strong enough to reduce debt and restart substantial buybacks. HII's $16.9 billion of awards against $12.5 billion of revenue provides the work, but execution must prove it can convert that backlog.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 770 (575 / 781) | 829 (588 / 882) | 895 (615 / 984) |
| Shares (millions) | 39.50 (39.58 / 39.05) | 39.60 (39.75 / 38.68) | 39.70 (39.92 / 38.31) |
| Dividends per share | 5.64 (5.64 / 5.64) | 5.88 (5.64 / 6.20) | 6.12 (5.64 / 6.82) |
| Price to earnings | 16.00 (13.00 / 19.00) | 16.50 (12.00 / 21.00) | 17.00 (11.50 / 23.00) |
What dividend yield does HII pay against its price?
The October 2029 range runs from $177.14 in the bear case to $590.76 in the bull case. Today's reference price is $281.32.