Deutsche Telekom stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Deutsche Telekom’s weighted forecast is €37.65 in October 2027, with the base case carrying 55% probability. It hinges on T‑Mobile US keeping its economics, German fiber finding paying customers, and cash covering the network, spectrum and shareholder claims.
Where could Deutsche Telekom’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is €37.65 in October 2027, a +53% return. It reaches €50.89 in October 2029, a +114% return, including dividends. Bear-case probability is 30%; base-case probability is 55%. Bull-case probability is 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 25.87 (+6 %) | 25.77 (+9 %) | 26.90 (+17 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 40.53 (+64 %) | 47.11 (+95 %) | 54.45 (+129 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 50.70 (+105 %) | 66.39 (+172 %) | 85.82 (+255 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 37.65 (+53 %) | 43.60 (+81 %) | 50.89 (+114 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each case its stated chance of happening.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Deutsche Telekom?
The investment works when T‑Mobile US keeps its economics, German fiber finds paying customers, and cash covers the network, spectrum and shareholder claims.
During 2027–2029, slowing U.S. postpaid additions, rising churn or persistent broadband losses would reduce EBITDA and the multiple. Faster fiber take-up would do the opposite. Buyback spending, debt refinancing, spectrum costs and cash after investment will determine whether capital returns remain near the base path or move toward the bear or bull cases.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 49,000 (45,600 / 50,500) | 51,000 (46,500 / 54,000) | 53,000 (47,400 / 58,000) |
| Dividends per share | 1.10 (0.90 / 1.20) | 1.20 (0.90 / 1.40) | 1.30 (0.90 / 1.60) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 5.80 (4.80 / 6.50) | 5.90 (4.50 / 7.00) | 6.00 (4.30 / 7.50) |
| Net debt | 93,715 (96,020 / 95,553) | 82,771 (87,473 / 85,227) | 69,699 (77,403 / 71,995) |
What this means. Enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization shows how many times the company's yearly operating earnings investors are paying for.
How much cash does Deutsche Telekom really make?
Free cash flow deducts the spending needed to keep the business operating. Telekom’s own FCF AL deducts cash investment and lease payments, while using its own treatment of intangible assets, disposals and customer-base acquisitions. The memo’s “real free cash flow” goes further by treating stock-based pay as an owner cost because issuing shares can dilute existing owners, even though it does not immediately consume cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 22,680 | 22,467 | 19,088 | 14,305 | 12,097 |
| − Stock pay | 1,045.4 | 925.6 | 843.2 | 811 | 652 |
| = Real free cash flow | 21,634.6 | 21,541.4 | 18,244.8 | 13,494 | 11,445 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 19,546 | 19,156 | 16,141 | 11,470 | 8,810 |
| What its own count also takes out | 3,134 | 3,311 | 2,947 | 2,835 | 3,287 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 18.2% | 18.6% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 10.6% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is lower by 3,134 million euros because it subtracts extra cash items under its own rules that our count does not.
What does an investor pay for Deutsche Telekom today?
P/E is useful only when the earnings definition is clear. The current trailing P/E is 14.2x, while the next-twelve-month figure is 9.8x. That forward multiple implies roughly €2.59 of earnings per share. Management’s adjusted EPS guidance is approximately €2.20; at the current price, that is about 11.5x. Adjusted earnings remove selected special factors, so they may better describe recurring performance but are not cash.