Vodafone stock forecast
Vodafone's weighted scenario reaches 197.60 GBp by October 2029. It hinges on German customer trends improving and VodafoneThree savings converting into cash.
Where could Vodafone's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast reaches 155.13 GBp by October 2027, a +35% total return. It reaches 197.60 GBp by October 2029, a +76% total return. The forecast assigns 30% probability to the bear case and 55% to the base case. The bull case has 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 109.94 (-5 %) | 92.67 (-18 %) | 85.52 (-22 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 165.84 (+44 %) | 191.03 (+69 %) | 220.05 (+97 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 206.23 (+78 %) | 266.98 (+134 %) | 339.47 (+199 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 155.13 (+35 %) | 172.91 (+53 %) | 197.60 (+76 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is a probability-based average of the three cases, not a price the shares are guaranteed to reach.
What has to go right or wrong for Vodafone?
The base case assumes adjusted EBITDA grows steadily, not explosively. It rises from €13,421m to €14,508m across the forecast dates. The bear path reflects continuing German losses and front-loaded integration costs; the bull path assumes German retention improves, digital services grow and VodafoneThree savings arrive faster. Q1 like-for-like EBITDAaL growth was 6.2%, while management guided to €13.0–€13.3bn of FY27 EBITDAaL, so gradual growth has evidence but the exact measure is not identical.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 13,421 (12,729 / 13,815) | 13,948 (12,581 / 14,792) | 14,508 (12,731 / 15,830) |
| Shares (millions) | 22,907 (23,267 / 22,538) | 22,659 (23,367 / 21,956) | 22,422 (23,467 / 21,416) |
| Dividends per share | 0.05 (0.02 / 0.05) | 0.05 (0.02 / 0.05) | 0.05 (0.02 / 0.05) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 5.80 (5.00 / 6.40) | 6.00 (4.70 / 6.90) | 6.20 (4.50 / 7.40) |
| Net debt | 32,822 (33,332 / 33,335) | 32,393 (33,469 / 32,598) | 31,480 (33,506 / 30,988) |
What this means. The enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization number shows how much investors are paying for each euro of the company's operating earnings.
How much cash does Vodafone really make?
Vodafone’s own free-cash-flow figure is broader than a simple calculation after capital spending, lease payments and interest. It includes items such as dividends from associates, asset disposals and other adjustments. Minority shareholders also matter: Vodafone may consolidate a subsidiary’s cash while sharing that subsidiary with outside owners.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 14,291 | 13,716 | 13,261 |
| − Capital spending | 7,318 | 6,699 | 6,860 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,174 | 1,024 | 1,039 |
| − Stock pay | 103 | 112 | 125 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,071 | 912 | 914 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
What does an investor pay for Vodafone today?
Cash provides a tougher test. Free cash flow is what remains after operating costs, tax, interest and network investment; its yield compares that cash with the share price. Vodafone’s adjusted free cash flow excludes some real payments, including spectrum, restructuring and integration costs. Dividends must therefore compete with those payments, lease obligations, debt maturities and distributions to minority owners.