Verizon stock forecast
Verizon’s weighted forecast reaches $56.40 by October 2029, hinging on durable service growth, customer retention, productive broadband investment and debt reduction. The investment works if Verizon turns network scale and Frontier’s fiber into cash while reducing debt.
Where could Verizon’s shares be by October 2029?
Verizon’s weighted value rises to $44.04 in October 2027, $49.68 in October 2028 and $56.40 in October 2029, equivalent to returns of 10%, 30% and 52% including dividends. The range is wide: by October 2029, the bear case reaches $21.88 while the bull case reaches $93.57, against today’s $42.78.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28% | 29.78 (-24%) | 25.63 (-27%) | 21.88 (-29%) |
| Base | 56% | 47.64 (+18%) | 54.88 (+42%) | 63.05 (+68%) |
| Bull | 16% | 56.39 (+38%) | 73.58 (+86%) | 93.57 (+140%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 44.04 (+10%) | 49.68 (+30%) | 56.40 (+52%) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Verizon?
EBITDA is the central operating assumption. The base case rises from $53,306 million in October 2027 to $55,171 million and then $57,102 million, or growth of 3.0% followed by 3.5% annually. That exceeds the 2021–2025 historical compound growth of about 0.8%, but remains below the latest quarterly growth of 7.2%. Service revenue guidance, improved additions and Frontier’s expected savings support the base path, while debt and network investment limit margin expansion.
The bear case falls to $49,423 million before recovering slowly to $49,670 million and $50,167 million. Falling ARPA, flat wireless-service guidance and slower fixed-wireless additions justify the initial decline. The bull case reaches $54,858 million, $58,150 million and $61,639 million on sustained 6% growth, requiring lower churn, successful broadband conversion and timely Frontier savings.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 53,306 (49,423 / 54,858) | 55,171 (49,670 / 58,150) | 57,102 (50,167 / 61,639) |
| Shares (millions) | 4,062 (4,127 / 4,044) | 4,003 (4,128 / 3,971) | 3,948 (4,130 / 3,905) |
| Dividends per share | 2.83 (2.83 / 2.83) | 2.90 (2.83 / 2.97) | 2.97 (2.83 / 3.11) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 6.60 (5.80 / 7.00) | 6.70 (5.40 / 7.50) | 6.80 (5.00 / 8.00) |
| Net debt | 158,318 (163,736 / 155,966) | 149,966 (162,398 / 143,930) | 139,390 (160,469 / 127,716) |
How much cash does Verizon really make?
Operating cash was $37,137 million in 2025. After capital spending including wireless licences of $17,461 million, free cash flow was $19,676 million. Subtracting $815 million of stock compensation gives analytical “real free cash flow” of $18,861 million. Employees receive shares instead of cash, but existing shareholders bear dilution.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 37,137 | 36,912 | 37,475 | 37,141 | 39,539 |
| − Capital spending | 17,461 | 17,990 | 24,563 | 26,740 | 67,882 |
| = Free cash flow | 19,676 | 18,922 | 12,912 | 10,401 | -28,343 |
| − Stock pay | 815 | 795 | 533 | 609 | 625 |
| = Real free cash flow | 18,861 | 18,127 | 12,379 | 9,792 | -28,968 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 14.2% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | -21.2% |
What does an investor pay for Verizon today?
At $42.78, the shares value Verizon at about $178 billion. Its trailing P/E, or price divided by recent earnings per share, is 11.1x. The forward P/E is 8.2x, but that cheaper figure depends on expected earnings rather than money already earned.