Nasdaq stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Nasdaq's weighted forecast is $114.57 in October 2029. It hinges on organic growth becoming cash earnings.
Where could Nasdaq's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to a weak first year, a roughly flat second year, and moderate gains by the third. The probability-weighted price is $89.01 in October 2027, $101.52 in October 2028, and $114.57 in October 2029, excluding dividends. By the final date, the bear case reaches $56.89 while the bull case reaches $187.78, against today's $103.30. The probabilities are 25% bear, 55% base, and 20% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 62.51 (-38 %) | 60.04 (-39 %) | 56.89 (-41 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 90.90 (-11 %) | 102.40 (+2 %) | 114.17 (+14 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 116.92 (+14 %) | 150.93 (+49 %) | 187.78 (+86 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 89.01 (-13 %) | 101.52 (+1 %) | 114.57 (+15 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average value across the bear, base, and bull cases, so it is not the value of an additional case.
What has to go right or wrong for Nasdaq?
The bear case assumes slow implementations, weaker activity, and margin pressure; the bull case requires faster conversions, recurring cross-sells, efficiency gains, and paying adoption of newer services. The table shows the resulting earnings paths. Neither case carries forward the latest legal benefit or 2025's unusual tax and transaction gains.
The base case therefore receives 55%. It combines recent organic growth, ARR expansion, continued buybacks, and gradual margin improvement without assuming exceptional execution or a major re-rating.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,263 (1,920 / 2,449) | 2,521 (1,947 / 2,886) | 2,782 (1,954 / 3,298) |
| Shares (millions) | 548 (553 / 545) | 542 (551 / 535) | 536 (550 / 527) |
| Dividends per share | 1.24 (1.24 / 1.24) | 1.32 (1.24 / 1.36) | 1.40 (1.24 / 1.50) |
| Price to earnings | 22.00 (18.00 / 26.00) | 22.00 (17.00 / 28.00) | 22.00 (16.00 / 30.00) |
How much cash does Nasdaq really make?
In 2025, operating cash was $2.3 billion. After $266 million of capital spending, ordinary free cash flow was $2.0 billion, above net income of $1.8 billion. Amortization helps explain the difference because it reduces accounting profit without requiring another cash payment that year. Capital spending still matters because software investment has not disappeared.
Share-based compensation, or stock pay, preserves cash but gives employees shares or share-linked awards. Nasdaq recorded $165 million in 2025. Subtracting it from ordinary free cash flow produces an analytical “real” free cash flow figure because dilution is an economic cost to existing owners.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,255 | 1,939 | 1,696 | 1,706 | 1,083 |
| − Capital spending | 266 | 207 | 158 | 152 | 163 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,989 | 1,732 | 1,538 | 1,554 | 920 |
| − Stock pay | 165 | 141 | 122 | 106 | 90 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,824 | 1,591 | 1,416 | 1,448 | 830 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 24.1% | 23.4% | 25.4% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is higher because it leaves out 205 million dollars of Section 31 fee movements, while we count those cash movements.