ICE stock forecast
ICE's weighted forecast is $155.87 in October 2027, with the bear case at 25%, the base case at 55%, and the bull case at 20%. ICE's price hinges on recurring growth, trading activity, mortgage execution, acquisition costs and debt reduction.
Where could ICE's shares be in each forecast year?
The weighted forecast puts the price at $155.87 in October 2027 (-0%), including dividends. It reaches $184.70 in October 2029 (+21%), including dividends. The bear case has 25% probability. The base case has 55%, and the bull case has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 132.50 (-15 %) | 120.66 (-21 %) | 109.04 (-27 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 153.81 (-2 %) | 169.29 (+10 %) | 176.28 (+16 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 190.76 (+22 %) | 240.79 (+55 %) | 302.45 (+95 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 155.87 (-0 %) | 171.43 (+11 %) | 184.70 (+21 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is an average of the bear, base, and bull values based on their probabilities, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right or wrong for ICE?
ICE can deliver a moderate gain, but the price hinges on recurring growth, trading activity, mortgage execution, acquisition costs and debt reduction. Management expects high-single-digit recurring revenue growth in Exchanges and 7.0%–8.0% growth in Fixed Income and Data Services in 2026. Mortgage Technology guidance is low-to-mid-single-digit revenue growth. ICE guides to $5,140 million–$5,180 million of GAAP operating expenses and $4,190 million–$4,230 million adjusted. It plans a $2.08 annual dividend per share and $400 million quarterly baseline repurchases from the third quarter onward.
How much cash does ICE really make?
Stock compensation creates another claim. ICE paid $238 million in stock compensation during 2025. Deducting it as an analytical allowance leaves $3,633 million of “real free cash flow,” because employees receiving shares are paid through future dilution even when no additional cash leaves the company.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,662 | 4,609 | 3,542 | 3,554 | 3,123 |
| − Capital spending | 791 | 752 | 489 | 482 | 452 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,871 | 3,857 | 3,053 | 3,072 | 2,671 |
| − Stock pay | 238 | 231 | 257 | 155 | 188 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,633 | 3,626 | 2,796 | 2,917 | 2,483 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 28.7% | 30.8% | 28.2% | 30.3% | 27.1% |
What this means. Stock pay is subtracted even though no cash leaves the company because employees receive shares, which gives away part of the company.
What does an investor pay for ICE today?
The stock is valued at 22.4 times trailing earnings and 17.8 times forward earnings. Free cash flow yield is 4.4%, while real free cash flow yield after stock pay is 4.1%. In 2025, real free cash flow was 28.7% of revenue. It was $6.32 per share, versus diluted EPS of $5.77. Net debt was $18,178 million. Dividends and buybacks used 62.0% of free cash flow. Dividend yield is 1.3% and buyback yield is 1.5%.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 158.41 |
| Market value (calculated) | 88,930.50 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 106,823.50 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 17.8x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.1% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it also includes the company's debt, after subtracting its cash and short-term investments.