CME Group stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: CME Group's probability-weighted price is $304.16 by October 2027. It hinges on turning trading activity into durable fees and cash while defending liquidity and executing cloud and Treasury-clearing plans.
Where could CME Group's shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is $304.16 by October 2027, a 6% total return including dividends. By October 2028, it reaches $309.90, a 12% return. By October 2029, it reaches $320.15, a 19% return.
The October 2029 range is $195.09 to $491.18. Today's price is $295.79. The base case is the most likely path, but the wide range reflects CME's exposure to trading activity, fee mix, execution and valuation.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 235.11 (-18%) | 206.93 (-25%) | 195.09 (-27%) |
| Base | 55% | 313.42 (+10%) | 314.69 (+14%) | 314.80 (+18%) |
| Bull | 20% | 365.03 (+27%) | 425.43 (+53%) | 491.18 (+80%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 304.16 (+6%) | 309.90 (+12%) | 320.15 (+19%) |
What has to go right or wrong for CME Group?
Earnings drive the forecast. The base case uses $4,662 million in October 2027 and $4,851 million in October 2028. It reaches $5,040 million in October 2029. The bear case falls from $4,218 million to $4,104 million, as activity cools, lower-fee products weaken revenue per contract and cloud costs arrive early. The bull case rises from $4,800 million to $5,874 million, requiring sustained rates activity, Treasury clearing, data growth and cloud savings.
The view would move toward the bear case during 2027–2029 if interest-rate ADV and revenue per contract weaken as markets calm. Slow Securities Clearing adoption, persistent cloud costs or easing data growth would reduce earnings and cash available for buybacks.
How much cash does CME Group really make?
CME generated $4,277.1 million of operating cash in 2025 and spent $83.5 million on capital assets. That left $4,193.6 million of free cash flow, a high conversion rate for a business that does not need factories to expand.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,277.1 | 3,690.5 | 3,453.8 | 3,056.0 | 2,402.4 |
| − Capital spending | 83.5 | 94.0 | 76.4 | 89.7 | 127.2 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,193.6 | 3,596.5 | 3,377.4 | 2,966.3 | 2,275.2 |
| − Stock pay | 94.8 | 89.5 | 82.9 | 84.3 | 75.2 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,098.8 | 3,507.0 | 3,294.5 | 2,882.0 | 2,200.0 |
What this means. Stock pay uses no cash today, but it gives employees part of the company, so we subtract its value to show what is truly left for shareholders.
What does an investor pay for CME Group today?
| Today (Oct 22, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 295.79 |
| Market value (calculated) | 106,360.0 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 24.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 22.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.9% |
What this means. The market value uses an older share count, so it may be slightly too high because the company later bought back shares.