Canadian Tire stock forecast
Canadian Tire's weighted scenario reaches C$236.06 in October 2029; the base case has 57% probability, against 28% for bear and 15% for bull. Canadian Tire's forecast hinges on whether True North’s retail gains can outrun seasonal inventory risk and bank credit losses.
Where could Canadian Tire's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is C$215.41 in October 2027, a 9% return. It reaches C$236.06 in October 2029, a 26% return. The base case has 57% probability, against 28% for bear. The bull case has 15% probability.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 161.90 (-17 %) | 140.51 (-24 %) | 119.79 (-31 %) |
| Base | 57 % | 226.93 (+14 %) | 240.00 (+24 %) | 253.83 (+35 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 271.50 (+36 %) | 327.76 (+67 %) | 385.60 (+100 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 215.41 (+9 %) | 225.31 (+17 %) | 236.06 (+26 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Canadian Tire?
The November 12, 2026 results call should update autumn demand, capital spending and the store-refresh timetable. Through the 2027–2028 selling seasons, sell-through, Dealer restocking and seasonal markdowns will show whether demand is improving. True North must deliver measurable gains in comparable sales, productivity and Retail ROIC against its costs, while rising loan losses could weaken earnings. The investment turns on whether consumer sell-through and True North’s retail gains can outrun seasonal inventory risk and bank credit losses.
The bear case holds first-year revenue flat, then grows it at 1% annually. Its margin falls from 4.0% to 3.8% because weak CTR sell-through, markdowns and higher credit losses persist. The bull case grows revenue at 4% annually and lifts margin from 4.8% to 5.1%, supported by better SportChek and Mark’s performance, store productivity and savings. CTR comparable sales fell 0.8% in Q2 2026, while inventory rose, so the base case requires improvement but not a sharp acceleration.
How much cash does Canadian Tire really make?
Lease principal payments rose to C$631.3 million in 2025. EBITDA excludes depreciation, interest and tax, so adjusted EBITDA is not distributable cash. Stock compensation also represents value given to employees, even when cash-flow presentation adds it back. The conclusion is simple: adjusted earnings improved, but 2025 cash conversion did not. The balance sheet shows what those obligations leave behind.
| Jan 2026 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Of which, freed from working capital | 528.8 | ||||
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 128.3 | ||||
| − Capital spending | 445.5 | 440.7 | |||
| − Lease payments | 631.3 | 580.4 | |||
| − Stock pay | 86.9 | 38.1 | 47.3 | -18.3 | 123.5 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 397.9 | 1,192.2 |
What does an investor pay for Canadian Tire today?
The valuation table brings together the share price, market value, enterprise value, earnings multiples, book value and dividend yield. P/E means the price paid for each dollar of recent or expected earnings. The lower forward figure offers value only if those forecast profits arrive on a comparable basis.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 204.76 |
| Market value (calculated) | 10,678.8 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 10,966.9 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.4x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 0.7x |
What this means. The enterprise value is not the value of every part of the company because it leaves out the Financial Services business and Canadian Tire Real Estate Investment Trust and counts only retail debt and cash.