Home Depot stock forecast
Home Depot's weighted forecast reaches $381.13 by October 2029, including dividends. It hinges on Home Depot's organic Pro growth, reliable fulfillment and cash returns from SRS and GMS.
Where could Home Depot's shares go?
The weighted price is $308.65 in October 2027 and $340.36 in October 2028, including dividends. It reaches $381.13 in October 2029, a 41% total return from today’s price. The October 2029 range runs from $250.71 in the bear case to $530.49 in the bull case.
The bear case receives 28%. The base case receives the highest probability, at 52%. The bull case receives 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 245.55 (-12 %) | 239.55 (-11 %) | 250.71 (-4 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 319.68 (+13 %) | 354.13 (+28 %) | 393.91 (+45 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 368.32 (+30 %) | 445.70 (+60 %) | 530.49 (+93 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 308.65 (+9 %) | 340.36 (+24 %) | 381.13 (+41 %) |
What could move Home Depot's stock forecast?
The bear case uses lower revenue, beginning at $168,000 million and $170,000 million in the first two periods. It reaches $174,000 million in the final period, with margins of 12.2%, 12.3% and 12.5%. The bull case reaches $177,000 million, $186,000 million and $196,000 million, while margins recover to the historical average by 2029. The evidence supports both caution and upside: transactions fell 1.0%, but online comparable sales grew 11% and SRS cross-selling reached an annualized $400 million pace.
How much cash does Home Depot really make?
After $3,679 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $12,646 million. After $522 million of stock-based pay, the analytical “real free cash flow” was $12,124 million. Net acquisition payments were $5,410 million, while dividends were $9,152 million. Cash generation was therefore substantial, but the year’s post-investment cash did not cover both acquisitions and distributions.
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 16,325 | 19,810 | 21,172 | 14,615 | 16,571 |
| − Capital spending | 3,679 | 3,485 | 3,226 | 3,119 | 2,566 |
| = Free cash flow | 12,646 | 16,325 | 17,946 | 11,496 | 14,005 |
| − Stock pay | 522 | 442 | 380 | 366 | 399 |
| = Real free cash flow | 12,124 | 15,883 | 17,566 | 11,130 | 13,606 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% |
What does an investor pay for Home Depot today?
At $290.74 a share, Home Depot asks investors to pay for established earnings while accepting the burden of acquisition debt.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 290.74 |
| Market value (calculated) | 290,068.28 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 340,879.28 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 20.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 18.2x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.2% |