Camden stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted scenario points to October 2029, with 55% assigned to the base case. It hinges on rent recovery, fading concessions and successful lease-up.
Where could Camden's shares be by 2029?
By October 2029, the bear case gives $65.52 and the bull case gives $144.68, against today’s $102.00. The probabilities are 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 75.83 (-22 %) | 71.21 (-22 %) | 65.52 (-24 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 99.71 (+2 %) | 105.50 (+12 %) | 107.96 (+19 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 117.36 (+19 %) | 130.87 (+37 %) | 144.68 (+55 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 97.27 (-0 %) | 102.00 (+8 %) | 104.69 (+15 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a fourth possible case.
What has to go right or wrong for Camden's stock forecast?
The bear case requires supply and weak employment to keep new-lease pricing negative. Concessions spread, expenses outrun rent, lease-up remains slow and refinancing costs rise. The shares fall to $75.83 by October 2027 and $65.52 by October 2029. The probability is 25% because same-property NOI already fell 1.4%, although the California proceeds and stable recent AFFO reduce the chance of a severe outcome.
The bull case requires faster delivery declines, resilient employment, fading concessions and successful lease-up. Stronger cash flow supports acquisitions and repurchases, while investors restore a higher multiple. The shares reach $117.36 by October 2027 and $144.68 by October 2029. The probability is 20% because comparable NOI has not yet shown a sustained recovery.
How much cash does Camden really make?
The payout table shows that Camden’s company-defined AFFO remains above its dividend, while the payout has moved higher as AFFO per share weakened and the dividend increased. That leaves a cushion, but a smaller one than before.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFO (company's measure) | 649,051 | 647,593 | 654,868 | 622,092 | 485,747 |
| AFFO per share (company's measure) | 5.90 | 5.88 | 5.94 | 5.69 | 4.68 |
| Dividends paid | 460,950 | 450,965 | 434,875 | 396,822 | 343,039 |
| AFFO payout ratio | 71.2% | 70.1% | 67.3% | 66.1% | 70.9% |
What this means. The trust changed how it defines adjusted funds from operations in 2022, so comparing the earlier and later numbers directly can be misleading.
What does an investor pay for Camden today?
At 17.5 times AFFO, the stock offers an AFFO earnings yield of approximately 5.7%. The dividend yield is 4.2%, so some cash remains inside the company. That retained cash helps only if investment preserves or increases future earnings per share.
| Today (Oct 25, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 102.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 10,255,013.7 |
| Price to FFO (calculated) | 16.4x |
| Price to AFFO (calculated) | 17.5x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.2% |
What this means. Dividend yield is the yearly dividend estimate based on the latest quarterly payment, not the amount paid each quarter.