ConocoPhillips dividend: cash coverage and yield
ConocoPhillips pays a current $0.84 quarterly dividend, and annual DPS reached $3.18 in 2025. Its $7,243 million of free cash flow was below approximately $9 billion distributed through dividends and repurchases.
How much does ConocoPhillips pay its shareholders?
Dividend growth is measured in the base case, from $3.36 per share in October 2027 to $3.64 in October 2029. The bear holds at $2.80, while the bull reaches $4.00. The base begins with the current $0.84 quarterly dividend, and the five-year record shows annual DPS rising to $3.18 in 2025. The bear allows for a cut because commodity cash flow is cyclical; COP reduced its dividend sharply in 2016. The bull requires project cash to arrive as planned.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Dividends paid, per share | 3.19 | 3.09 | 4.63 | 4.48 | 1.78 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 2.47 | 4.28 | |||
| = Paid out more than FCF, per share | 1.41 | 0.93 | 1.88 |
Is ConocoPhillips's dividend covered by its cash?
Capital spending was $12,553 million, leaving $7,243 million of free cash flow on the cash-statement basis. After stock compensation of $336 million, analytical “real free cash flow” was $6,907 million. Stock awards usually require no immediate cash, but they transfer ownership to employees, so they are an economic cost to shareholders.
ConocoPhillips distributed approximately $9 billion through dividends and repurchases. Disposal proceeds helped fund the wider cash budget, but asset sales are not recurring operating cash. The specialist asks whether ordinary cash generation can sustain production, complete projects and pay obligations.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 7,243 | 8,006 | 8,717 | 18,155 | 11,672 |
| − Dividends paid | 3,995 | 3,646 | 5,583 | 5,726 | 2,359 |
| − Share buybacks | 5,018 | 5,463 | 5,400 | 9,270 | 3,623 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 3,159 | 5,690 | |||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 1,770 | 1,103 | 2,266 |
What could change ConocoPhillips's dividend?
Through 2027–2029, Willow cost escalation, LNG delays or continuing high construction spending would weaken free cash flow and reduce buybacks. Management’s $7 billion annual free-cash-flow improvement is a target, not a guarantee.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 30,061 (22,685 / 36,299) | 31,872 (20,075 / 40,241) | 34,007 (22,283 / 43,280) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,171 (1,188 / 1,160) | 1,142 (1,178 / 1,123) | 1,115 (1,172 / 1,088) |
| Dividends per share | 3.36 (2.80 / 3.50) | 3.50 (2.80 / 3.75) | 3.64 (2.80 / 4.00) |
| Net debt | 15,043 (16,507 / 13,350) | 14,729 (20,697 / 9,780) | 12,067 (22,429 / 2,870) |
What is ConocoPhillips's dividend yield today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how much investors pay for each dollar of profit. COP’s lower forward P/E already assumes analysts’ expected earnings improvement. Free cash flow is different from cash from operations because it subtracts the capital needed to maintain and expand production. COP’s promise to return 45% of cash from operations therefore still needs testing against sustaining investment, especially in a downturn.