Diamondback stock forecast
Diamondback's weighted case points to $257.96 in October 2027 and $327.59 in October 2029. Diamondback's result hinges on replacing steep well declines while improving gas realizations after transport costs.
Where could Diamondback's shares be by 2029?
The weighted case points to $257.96 in October 2027 and $327.59 in October 2029 if production, gas realizations and well economics hold and cash supports debt reduction and selective buybacks. For 2026, guidance calls for at least 1,000 MBOE/d of net production, or thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. It calls for 522 MBO/d of oil production and $3,900 million of capital expenditures; MBO/d means thousand barrels per day.
The forecast implies a 29% return including dividends at the first date and a 66% return including dividends at the last. Bear probability is 27%. Base probability is 53%, and bull probability is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 166.02 (-16 %) | 118.49 (-38 %) | 157.25 (-19 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 267.47 (+33 %) | 289.42 (+46 %) | 315.30 (+61 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 356.87 (+77 %) | 477.23 (+139 %) | 590.12 (+196 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 257.96 (+29 %) | 280.83 (+42 %) | 327.59 (+66 %) |
What has to go right for Diamondback?
The bear case falls to $8,585 million in the middle year because oil weakness, negative gas pricing, congestion, and cost inflation reduce margins. The bull case reaches $17,170 million as production grows to 1,120 thousand BOE per day and margins reach $42 per BOE. That requires stronger oil prices, better gas routes, cost efficiency, and repeatable newer-zone results. Q2 2026 showed the risk: oil realized $96.82 per barrel, but gas realized negative $2.15 per Mcf.
The first major test is 2027 operating delivery. If service and material costs rise faster than efficiency gains, replacement drilling consumes more cash and moves the forecast toward the bear case. If production holds near plan while contracted transport improves gas realizations, the base case gains support.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production per day | 921.036 | 598.284 | 447.707 | 386.005 | 375.349 |
| Realized price per barrel of liquids | 49.91 | 57.86 | 61.09 | 78.10 | 56.80 |
| Realized price per thousand cubic feet of gas | 0.89 | 0.32 | 1.32 | 4.86 | 3.36 |
| Production cost per barrel of oil equivalent | 7.08 | 7.50 | 7.10 | 6.46 | 5.67 |
| Capital spending | 3,523 | 2,867 | 2,701 | 1,938 | 1,487 |
| Net debt | 14,385 | 12,814 | 6,059 | 6,091 | 6,033 |
How much cash does Diamondback really make?
Diamondback reported $5.549 billion of free cash flow in 2025. That measure subtracts the company’s chosen capital-spending definition from operating cash flow, but it does not prove that enough money was spent to keep production flat. Stock pay also matters because it is an economic cost to shareholders even when no cash leaves during the period.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 8,758 | 6,413 | 5,920 | 6,325 | 3,944 |
| − Capital spending | 3,523 | 2,867 | 2,701 | 1,938 | 1,487 |
| = Free cash flow | 5,235 | 3,546 | 3,219 | 4,387 | 2,457 |
| − Stock pay | 81 | 65 | 54 | 55 | 51 |
| = Real free cash flow | 5,154 | 3,481 | 3,165 | 4,332 | 2,406 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 5,549 | 3,642 | 2,923 | 4,586 | 2,421 |
| What its own count adds back | 314 | 96 | 199 | ||
| What its own count also takes out | 296 | 36 | |||
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 34.8% | 32.0% | 38.3% | 45.5% | 36.1% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 34.3% | 31.5% | 37.6% | 44.9% | 35.4% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow can be higher or lower because it leaves out changes in cash tied up in inventory and unpaid bills, while our count includes them.