Devon Energy stock forecast
Devon Energy's weighted forecast reaches $76.42 by October 2029, with bear, base and bull probabilities of 33%, 50% and 17%. It hinges on integration savings, gas access and durable cash generation per share.
Where could Devon Energy's shares be by October 2029?
The final-date range runs from $24.13 in the bear case to $169.26 in the bull case. The bear case has a 33% probability, the base case 50%, and the bull case 17%, reflecting high commodity sensitivity and uncertain integration benefits.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 33 % | 26.29 (-46 %) | 20.97 (-55 %) | 24.13 (-47 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 66.18 (+33 %) | 72.50 (+49 %) | 79.36 (+65 %) |
| Bull | 17 % | 111.65 (+123 %) | 137.72 (+178 %) | 169.26 (+245 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 60.75 (+22 %) | 66.58 (+37 %) | 76.42 (+59 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each case the importance of its probability, so it is not another separate case.
What has to go right or wrong for Devon Energy?
EBITDA is the largest operating swing. The base case rises from $11,700 million in October 2027 to $12,500 million in October 2029, with $12,100 million between them. It assumes combined operations, lower costs, and synergies offsetting the Eagle Ford sale and inflation. The bear case moves from $6,700 million to $6,200 million before recovering to $6,800 million, because weak prices and gas discounts overwhelm volume gains. The bull case rises from $16,100 million to $18,300 million as prices, gas access, well productivity, and synergies reinforce one another.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 11,700 (6,700 / 16,100) | 12,100 (6,200 / 17,200) | 12,500 (6,800 / 18,300) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,079 (1,107 / 1,056) | 1,060 (1,113 / 1,017) | 1,042 (1,119 / 980) |
| Dividends per share | 1.40 (1.28 / 1.60) | 1.50 (0.64 / 1.90) | 1.60 (0.64 / 2.20) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 6.50 (5.50 / 7.50) | 6.50 (5.00 / 8.00) | 6.50 (5.00 / 8.50) |
| Net debt | 4,614 (7,753 / 2,793) | 1,804 (7,653 / -2,435) | -1,439 (6,998 / -10,378) |
What this means. Negative net debt means the company has more cash than borrowed money, so it has net cash.
How much cash does Devon Energy really make?
Devon defines free cash flow as operating cash flow less capital spending. That is a consistent measure, but it does not automatically subtract acquisitions or acreage purchases. In the second quarter of 2026, Devon spent about $2.6 billion on Permian acreage outside reported capital spending.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,711 | 6,600 | 6,544 | 8,530 | 4,899 |
| − Capital spending | 3,592 | 3,645 | 3,883 | 2,542 | 1,989 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,119 | 2,955 | 2,661 | 5,988 | 2,910 |
| − Stock pay | 99 | 99 | 93 | 88 | 99 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,020 | 2,856 | 2,568 | 5,900 | 2,811 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 18.1% | 18.5% | 17.4% | 31.2% | 23.8% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is the same as ours, but our real free cash flow is lower because we also count shares given to employees as a cost to shareholders.
What does an investor pay for Devon Energy today?
P/E, or price-to-earnings, says how many dollars investors pay for each dollar of annual profit. If a share earns $1 and costs $12, its P/E is 12; if next year’s expected earnings are $1.20, the forward P/E is 10. That estimate depends on oil and gas prices, production, costs, hedges and impairments.