A. O. Smith earnings: guidance and results
MyStockButler's November 2026 analysis: A. O. Smith's next results are expected on February 4, 2027. For A. O. Smith, the key thing to watch is whether higher prices overcome higher costs.
What has A. O. Smith guided for 2026?
Management guides to $3.27 billion–$3.29 billion of 2026 sales excluding China. Adjusted EPS is $3.42–$3.52, and free cash flow is $525–$575 million. Its record is mixed: promises kept were 3/5.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales excluding China | Year to Dec 2026 | 3,270 | 3,290 | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Adjusted EPS excluding China | Year to Dec 2026 | 3.42 | 3.52 | Oct 29, 2026 |
| 2026 FREE CASH FLOW | Year to Dec 2026 | 525 | 575 | Oct 29, 2026 |
What this means. When the low and high numbers match, it means management gave one approximate estimate, not a guaranteed result.
Did A. O. Smith keep its past promises?
| What management forecast | Checked | Above | Within | Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 4 years | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Diluted earnings per share | 5 years | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4 years | 0 | 2 | 2 |
What this means. The heading says three of five promises were kept, but the rows show thirteen forecasts checked, so the total is unclear.
How has A. O. Smith's revenue and profit changed?
Sales were $940.5 million, slightly below $942.5 million in the same quarter of 2025. Gross margin edged up to 38.8%, but interest expense rose to $7.7 million from $3.6 million as borrowing increased.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 940.5 | 1,004.3 | 945.6 | 912.5 | 942.5 | 1,011.3 | 963.9 | 912.4 |
| Gross margin | 38.8% | 38.6% | 38.7% | 38.4% | 38.7% | 39.3% | 38.9% | 37.1% |
| Operating income | 175.2 | 167.5 | 161.8 | 163.8 | 175.6 | 205.8 | 182.8 | 138.5 |
| Net income | 126.3 | 124.9 | 118.0 | 125.4 | 132.0 | 152.2 | 136.6 | 109.7 |
| EPS, diluted | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.94 | 1.07 | 0.95 | 0.75 |
What this means. The numbers from March 2026 onward include Leonard Valve, so they are not a perfectly fair comparison with earlier quarters.
What should I watch in A. O. Smith's next results?
Investors should watch whether higher prices overcome higher costs and whether the China sale turns an announcement into usable cash.
A further price increase of up to 9.5% is due on most water-heater products in December 2026. A price increase raises revenue per unit, but distributors may buy ahead: they may order extra heaters before the increase, leaving them with full inventories and reducing later orders. Steel and freight costs are also expected to rise about 15% in 2026 compared with 2025, so costs may increase before the new prices fully reach customers.