Research memoA. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) · NYSEMemo of November 1, 2026By Olivier Lachance

A. O. Smith dividend

MyStockButler's November 2026 analysis: A. O. Smith raised its quarterly dividend 6% to $0.38. A. O. Smith's shareholder payments exceeded free cash flow across 2021–2025, so cash coverage was strained.

1.38
Dividend paid per share, 2025
2.4%
Dividend yield
6.3%
Real free cash flow yield
6.4%
Free cash flow yield
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Every number traced to A. O. Smith's filings8 chapters · 21,910 words163 sources cited

How much does A. O. Smith pay per share?

A. O. Smith (AOS) dividend per share: $1.05 paid in 2021, $1.38 in 2025; our forecast: $1.71 in Nov 2029; dividend yield 2.4 %

Dividends remain $1.52 per share in the base case in 2027, then rise to $1.61 and $1.71. The bear case holds at $1.52 before cutting to $1.37. The bull case rises to $1.60, $1.70 and $1.81. The base follows five years of increases and the latest 6% raise, while the bear reflects distributions that have exceeded free cash flow and higher debt.

The forecast's tablebase case, then bear / bull in brackets; USD millions, per share in USD, unless shown
November 2027November 2028November 2029
Dividends per share1.52 (1.52 / 1.60)1.61 (1.52 / 1.70)1.71 (1.37 / 1.81)

How much would A. O. Smith's dividend pay you?

$10,000 invested in A. O. Smith at its 2.4% dividend yield (our report of November 1, 2026) pays $240.00 in the first year, before tax. If its dividend per share keeps changing 7.1% a year, as it did from 2021 to 2025, and the dividends are reinvested, year 10 pays $589.47, with $3,869.38 received in all.

$

$240.00
First-year dividend income
$589.47
Dividend income in year 10
$3,869.38
Total dividends received

Before tax. Past dividend growth is not a promise. Information only, not investment advice.

Does A. O. Smith's dividend fit its cash flow?

A. O. Smith returned more cash to shareholders than it generated after capital spending, which reduced its financial cushion. Free cash flow means the cash left after operating the business and buying or maintaining equipment. Dividends and buybacks use that cash afterward, so paying shareholders can weaken the company even when operations generate cash.

The pattern continued in 2026. The board added 5 million shares to repurchase authority, and management expected about $300 million of buybacks. It also raised the quarterly dividend 6% to $0.38 and said it would prioritize buybacks with after-tax China-sale proceeds and cash recovered from China.

Follow the money: where the free cash flow wentUS$ millions
20252024202320222021
Free cash flow546.0473.8597.7321.1566.0
− Dividends paid195.7190.4183.5177.2170.1
− Share buybacks400.8305.8306.5403.5366.5
= Free cash flow not paid out107.729.4
Paid out, % of free cash flow109.2%104.7%82.0%180.8%94.8%

What this means. In 2025, the company paid shareholders more than the cash it made, so it had to use savings or borrow money to cover the difference.

Dividend per share against free cash flow per share (US$ millions; per share in US$)1.053.4320211.141.9920221.223.8820231.293.1220241.383.752025Dividends paid, per shareReal free cash flow per share

What could change A. O. Smith's dividend?

Management guides to $3.27 billion–$3.29 billion of 2026 sales excluding China. Adjusted EPS is $3.42–$3.52, and free cash flow is $525–$575 million. Its record is mixed: promises kept were 3/5.

The first bear signal would be late-2026 pricing that fails to cover steel and freight inflation as residential volumes soften. That would lower revenue growth, margins and earnings through 2029.

What is A. O. Smith's dividend yield at today's price?

What an investor pays todayUS$ millions; per share in US$
Today (Nov 1, 2026)
Share price63.07
Dividend yield (calculated)2.4%

What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes debt and subtracts cash, so it estimates the cost of buying the whole business.

From the full memo · 1. The business

A. O. Smith makes equipment that heats, stores, controls and cleans water. To understand its business, follow a heater from factory to building—and follow the dollar as it moves through that chain.

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Where these numbers come from

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