Antofagasta dividend
Antofagasta declared a 30.1-cent interim dividend, after dividends fell from $1.43 to $0.31 before recovering to $0.65. Antofagasta paid $395.3 million to shareholders in 2025 while free cash flow was −$719.2 million, so the dividend was not covered by that year's free cash flow.
How much does Antofagasta pay in dividends?
The bear case cuts dividends to $0.55 initially and $0.46 thereafter as earnings weaken toward the 35% policy floor. The bull case rises to $1.25, $1.45 and $1.65 because stronger earnings support a similar payout ratio. The range is justified by a history in which dividends fell from $1.43 to $0.31 before recovering to $0.65.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real free cash flow per share | -0.76 | -0.30 | 0.11 | -0.12 | 1.82 |
| Free cash flow per share | -0.73 | -0.29 | 0.12 | -0.11 | 1.83 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.62 | 1.28 | 0.72 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stock pay per share | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Book value per share | 10.52 | 9.60 | 9.08 | 8.75 | 8.47 |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because the report subtracts employee incentive pay again, even though that cash cost is already included in cash from operations.
Does Antofagasta's cash cover its dividend?
Distributions continued while construction absorbed cash. In 2025 Antofagasta paid $395.3 million to shareholders and $364.8 million to minority owners. Together, it paid $1,479.3 million more than its free cash flow. The board’s recommended payout was 50.0% of 2025 earnings, showing why an earnings payout can look moderate even when construction weakens cash coverage.
Free cash flow is the cash left after operating needs and capital spending. It was $1,803.7 million in 2021, enough to fund distributions and retain $488.4 million. It then turned negative in 2022, was barely positive in 2023, and fell to −$719.2 million in 2025.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | -719.2 | -282.3 | 122.6 | -107.7 | 1,803.7 |
| − Paid to minority owners | 364.8 | 240.0 | 388.0 | 80.0 | 604.5 |
| − Dividends paid | 395.3 | 317.4 | 613.2 | 1,262.9 | 710.8 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 488.4 | ||||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 1,479.3 | 839.7 | 878.6 | 1,450.6 |
What this means. The company paid shareholders more cash than its business generated in some years, using savings or new borrowing to make up the difference.
What could change Antofagasta's dividend?
Dividends recover more slowly than EBITDA in the base case. The forecast uses $1.05 per share in October 2027 and $1.10 in October 2028, reaching $1.20 in October 2029. This keeps the payout near the 50% level achieved in 2025, while the declared 30.1-cent interim dividend supports the higher run rate.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 6,366 (4,000 / 7,792) | 6,441 (3,744 / 9,183) | 7,312 (4,111 / 10,048) |
| Shares (millions) | 986 (986 / 986) | 986 (986 / 986) | 986 (986 / 986) |
| Dividends per share | 1.05 (0.55 / 1.25) | 1.10 (0.46 / 1.45) | 1.20 (0.46 / 1.65) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 7.50 (6.00 / 9.00) | 7.50 (5.50 / 10.00) | 8.00 (5.50 / 11.00) |
| Net debt | 5,248 (5,755 / 4,811) | 5,267 (6,734 / 3,557) | 4,471 (7,197 / 1,490) |
What this means. The earnings figure includes the company's share of certain partner businesses, even though their revenue is left out, so the numbers do not line up exactly.
What is Antofagasta's dividend yield today?
The controlling shareholder’s entities hold 60.66% of ordinary shares, which can limit outside influence without proving a minority discount. With a 1.4% dividend yield, most of the investment case depends on future cash generation.