Antofagasta stock forecast
Antofagasta’s weighted share price reaches 4,086.27 GBp in October 2029, a 21% total return including dividends. It hinges on Centinela’s commissioning and ramp-up from late 2027 through 2029.
Where could Antofagasta’s shares go?
By October 2029, the weighted price reaches 4,086.27 GBp, a 21% total return. The outcomes are widely dispersed: the bear case gives 1,178.50 GBp, while the bull case gives 8,336.91 GBp. Today’s price is 3,572.00 GBp. The probabilities are 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull, reflecting Antofagasta’s volatile earnings history and the uncertainty around its expansion programme.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 1394.99 (-60%) | 1059.57 (-68%) | 1178.50 (-64%) |
| Base | 50% | 3249.27 (-7%) | 3290.82 (-3%) | 4130.69 (+23%) |
| Bull | 20% | 4994.06 (+42%) | 6749.25 (+95%) | 8336.91 (+143%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 3041.94 (-13%) | 3313.13 (-3%) | 4086.27 (+21%) |
What has to go right for Antofagasta?
The bear case assumes that copper prices weaken while Los Pelambres suffers further grade, weather or labour problems. Centinela then contributes later than planned, leaving Antofagasta with high construction spending and rising debt. The share price falls to 1,394.99 GBp in October 2027 and 1,178.50 GBp by October 2029. The 30% probability reflects the 2025 production miss, the 2026 guidance cut and the speed with which EBITDA fell during the previous downturn.
The bull case requires Los Pelambres to recover, Centinela to ramp on schedule and tight concentrate supply to support copper prices. Falling project outlays then improve cash flow and reduce debt. The share price reaches 4,994.06 GBp first and 8,336.91 GBp by 2029. Its 20% probability is lower because several favorable events must occur together, while recent weather and labour disruption show the execution risk.
How much cash does Antofagasta really make?
Cash from operations was $3,071.6 million in 2025. Capital spending reached $3,684.5 million, so free cash flow was negative after the main investment outflow. Lease payments and the company’s analytical stock-pay adjustment make the cash available to shareholders weaker still.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,071.6 | 2,285.3 | 2,333.0 | 1,876.9 | 3,670.1 |
| − Capital spending | 3,684.5 | 2,414.9 | 2,129.2 | 1,879.2 | 1,777.5 |
| = Free cash flow | -719.2 | -282.3 | 122.6 | -107.7 | 1,803.7 |
| − Stock pay | 30.5 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 9.0 |
| = Real free cash flow | -749.7 | -297.3 | 110.0 | -120.8 | 1,794.7 |
What this means. The stock pay line is confusing because these awards are paid in cash, not shares, and that cost is already included in cash from operations, so subtracting it again counts the same cost twice.
What does an investor pay for Antofagasta today?
The shares trade at 28.2x last-12-month earnings and 21.9x expected next-12-month earnings. EBITDA, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, shows the operating engine but not the cash available to shareholders. In H1 2026, EBITDA was $2,840.5 million, while capital expenditure was $1,672.1 million. Trucks, concentrators and pipelines still require replacement and expansion, even when EBITDA margins are high. Gold and molybdenum by-products help pay the same mining bill, but free cash flow remains sensitive to construction timing and copper prices.
| Today (Oct 14, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 3,572.0 |
| Market value (calculated) | 3,521,480.1 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 3,765,786.7 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 28.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 21.9x |
What this means. The negative free cash flow yields mean the company spent more cash than it generated in the latest year, even though it reported a profit.