Glencore stock forecast
The weighted forecast for Glencore points to 328.69p in October 2027, a -42% return. It hinges on normalised marketing earnings, copper delivery and debt reduction.
Where could Glencore’s shares go?
The weighted forecast points to 328.69p in October 2027, a -42% return, and 483.36p in October 2029, a -13% return; it hinges on normalised marketing earnings, copper delivery and debt reduction. Management guides 2026 copper production to 810–870 thousand tonnes. It guides zinc to 700–740 thousand tonnes. Marketing adjusted EBIT should exceed $5 billion in 2026, with a 2027 reference range of $2.8–4.2 billion. Glencore targets about one million tonnes of annualised copper by end-2028 and 1.6 million tonnes by 2035.
The bear case has 30% probability. The base case has 50%. The bull case has 20%. The 29 October 2026 third-quarter production report will test copper delivery and EVR output after first-half weakness. Marketing adjusted EBIT within the 2027 range supports the base case; persistent strength supports the bull case. Collahuasi stockpile leaching, recovering copper from piled ore with liquid, is scheduled for 2028. MARA targets first production in H2 2031.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 121.43 (-79 %) | 39.94 (-92 %) | 59.07 (-89 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 336.30 (-41 %) | 388.56 (-30 %) | 477.76 (-13 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 620.57 (+8 %) | 869.94 (+54 %) | 1133.82 (+102 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 328.69 (-42 %) | 380.25 (-32 %) | 483.36 (-13 %) |
What has to go right for Glencore—and what could go wrong?
H1 2026 EBITDA was about $10,100m, implying a $20,200m annualised run rate, but unusually strong marketing makes that an anchor rather than a full-year forecast. The historical range was $13,511m to $34,060m, while 2027 marketing guidance is $2.8bn–$4.2bn. The base therefore assumes normalization and gradual copper recovery; the bear adds weaker prices, volumes and costs; the bull requires sustained disruption and successful projects. Higher prices contributed about $3,800m to recent industrial growth, versus $200m from volume.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 16,500 (12,500 / 21,000) | 17,000 (11,500 / 23,000) | 18,000 (12,000 / 25,500) |
| Shares (millions) | 11,633 (11,699 / 11,567) | 11,579 (11,705 / 11,426) | 11,531 (11,712 / 11,300) |
| Dividends per share | 0.12 (0.05 / 0.17) | 0.12 (0.03 / 0.20) | 0.13 (0.02 / 0.22) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 5.50 (4.80 / 6.20) | 5.70 (4.30 / 7.00) | 6.00 (4.50 / 7.50) |
| Net debt | 39,030 (41,219 / 35,300) | 37,419 (43,270 / 29,585) | 35,168 (44,854 / 21,871) |
How much cash does Glencore really make?
Capital spending creates a second drain. Glencore’s operating cash was less than its property, plant and equipment purchases and lease payments. Free cash flow was therefore negative before the company’s separate stock-pay adjustment. Stock pay is not another bank payment; it is an allowance for the dilution caused when employees receive shares.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,642 | 10,055 | 11,036 | 13,659 | 8,860 |
| − Capital spending | 5,932 | 5,611 | 4,484 | 4,177 | 3,618 |
| − Lease payments | 911 | 844 | 616 | 577 | 634 |
| = Free cash flow | -1,201 | 3,600 | 5,936 | 8,905 | 4,608 |
| − Stock pay | 219 | 149 | 328 | 150 | 189 |
| = Real free cash flow | -1,420 | 3,451 | 5,608 | 8,755 | 4,419 |
What does an investor pay for Glencore today?
Cash flow is the harder test. Glencore’s negative free-cash-flow yield gives the price little current cash support, although working capital can distort one year: the company released $1.6 billion from non-readily-marketable working capital in 2025. That release cannot repeat indefinitely.