Freeport-McMoRan stock forecast
The weighted scenario for Freeport-McMoRan is $77.29 in October 2027 and $85.18 in October 2029, with the base case carrying 55% probability. It hinges on Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg output recovery producing cash after investment and partner claims.
Where could Freeport-McMoRan’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $77.29 in October 2027, a +11% return. At the final date, October 2029, it is $85.18, a +24% return. The bear case carries 25% probability, the base case 55%, and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 23.30 (-66 %) | 16.52 (-75 %) | 9.20 (-85 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 76.20 (+10 %) | 86.61 (+26 %) | 87.00 (+27 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 147.79 (+112 %) | 172.59 (+149 %) | 175.15 (+154 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 77.29 (+11 %) | 86.28 (+25 %) | 85.18 (+24 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value across the bear, base, and bull cases after giving each case weight according to its probability.
What has to go right for Freeport-McMoRan, and what could go wrong?
The bear case falls from $5.755 billion to $4.88 billion as weak prices and an interrupted restart leave capacity underused. The bull case reaches $17.76 billion before easing to $17.99 billion in 2029, reflecting strong prices, timely gold and repeatable leach output. FCX’s 2025 copper sales and Grasberg production both fell sharply, while the latest quarter still showed $7,029 million of revenue and $2,003 million of operating income.
The base case reaches $76.20 first and $87.00 last. Its 55% probability is highest because it follows management’s staged recovery without assuming every growth project succeeds. High capex and partner distributions prevent a faster improvement in cash and valuation.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 11,480 (5,755 / 17,760) | 12,300 (5,380 / 18,730) | 12,300 (4,880 / 17,990) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,432 (1,436 / 1,427) | 1,428 (1,437 / 1,418) | 1,423 (1,437 / 1,410) |
| Dividends per share | 0.60 (0.60 / 0.60) | 0.60 (0.30 / 0.80) | 0.60 (0.30 / 1.00) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 10.00 (7.50 / 12.00) | 10.50 (7.00 / 13.00) | 10.50 (6.50 / 13.50) |
| Net debt | 5,692 (9,700 / 2,196) | 5,504 (13,925 / -1,319) | 5,316 (18,500 / -4,042) |
What this means. A negative net debt number means the company would have more cash than borrowed money, after excluding its separately reported lease obligations.
How much cash does Freeport-McMoRan really make?
In 2025, operations generated $5.610 billion, while capital spending consumed $4.494 billion. The stated remainder was $1.079 billion; after stock-based compensation, Freeport’s analytical “real free cash flow” was $958 million. Its margin was 3.7%, far below the 24.0% achieved in 2021.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,610 | 7,160 | 5,279 | 5,139 | 7,715 |
| − Capital spending | 4,494 | 4,808 | 4,824 | 3,469 | 2,115 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,079 | 2,311 | 452 | 1,663 | 5,575 |
| − Stock pay | 121 | 109 | 109 | 95 | 98 |
| = Real free cash flow | 958 | 2,202 | 343 | 1,568 | 5,477 |
What this means. The zero for interest paid does not mean the company paid no interest; its cash interest was already included in cash from operations.
What does an investor pay for Freeport-McMoRan today?
The trailing P/E is 34.4x, based on completed earnings. The forward P/E is 16.4x, based on a forecast. Those multiples imply earnings per share rising from about US$2.03 to US$4.26. The lower multiple is therefore not a second price: it is the same price applied to a much more optimistic earnings assumption.