Zijin stock forecast
Zijin's weighted scenario reaches HKD51.04 in October 2029, a 67% return including dividends from HKD32.90. Zijin's forecast hinges on Kamoa's dewatering and production recovery.
Where could Zijin's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price reaches HKD39.63 in October 2027, a 24% total return including dividends from HKD32.90. It reaches HKD43.32 in October 2028, a 39% return. By October 2029, it reaches HKD51.04, a 67% return. The bear-to-bull range at that final date is HKD29.70 to HKD76.78.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 30.14 (-6 %) | 23.67 (-23 %) | 29.70 (-1 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 41.13 (+29 %) | 47.49 (+53 %) | 53.54 (+76 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 50.11 (+57 %) | 62.38 (+100 %) | 76.78 (+149 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 39.63 (+24 %) | 43.32 (+39 %) | 51.04 (+67 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Zijin?
EBITDA is the central operating judgment. FY2025 EBITDA was CNY101,363m on diluted EPS of CNY1.91. Scaling that record by the current NTM EPS estimate of CNY3.03657 gives the base starting point of CNY161,149m. The base case grows to CNY177,264m in 2028 and CNY191,445m in 2029 as Kamoa recovers and projects ramp. The bear case falls to CNY145,000m, then CNY124,700m, before recovering to CNY134,700m because weaker prices, higher costs and delays outweigh new output. The bull case starts at CNY170,000m and reaches CNY213,248m because supportive gold and copper prices coincide with successful execution. Zijin’s EBITDA rose each year from 2021 to 2025, but realized metal prices also rose sharply.
The bull case reaches HKD50.11 first and HKD76.78 last, with a 20% probability. It requires Kamoa to restore output, Julong to sustain its ramp and new capacity to deliver at controlled costs. A 7–8x multiple also requires investors to trust execution above diversified peers, so several favorable outcomes must coincide.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 161,149 (145,000 / 170,000) | 177,264 (124,700 / 190,400) | 191,445 (134,700 / 213,248) |
| Shares (millions) | 27,009 (26,801 / 27,428) | 27,219 (27,010 / 27,429) | 27,430 (27,219 / 27,620) |
| Dividends per share | 1.13 (0.78 / 1.30) | 1.20 (0.77 / 1.50) | 1.31 (0.80 / 1.70) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 6.00 (5.00 / 7.00) | 6.00 (4.50 / 7.50) | 6.00 (5.00 / 8.00) |
| Net debt | 19,511 (36,106 / 17,858) | -38,890 (15,903 / -31,199) | -103,902 (-15,922 / -102,697) |
How much cash does Zijin really make?
Capital spending was RMB30,982.3 million. After lease payments and interest, free cash flow was RMB39,773.4 million; after stock-based pay, the analytical measure called real free cash flow was RMB39,547.4 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 75,429.516296 | 48,860.346839 | 36,860.066015 | 28,678.50236 | 26,072.237601 |
| − Capital spending | 30,982.297763 | 24,797.782052 | 30,428.663664 | 24,794.352673 | 20,148.56808 |
| − Interest paid | 4,479.253112 | 5,446.089356 | 5,514.726261 | 3,339.243518 | 1,962.102738 |
| = Free cash flow | 39,773.420745 | 18,288.347358 | 680.895283 | 460.370327 | 3,864.464783 |
| = Real free cash flow | 39,547.431334 | 18,049.523787 | 576.570696 | 263.351061 | 3,667.263303 |
What do investors pay for Zijin today?
Free cash flow yield is 5.3%, but dividend yield is only 2.1%. The first measures cash left after the spending included in the calculation; the second measures what management actually distributes. Construction, debt repayment and safety buffers can absorb cash even when mines generate it.