Anglo stock forecast
Anglo's weighted price is 2,552.12 GBp in October 2027 and 3,953.73 GBp in October 2029, with 32% bear, 48% base and 20% bull probabilities. It hinges on production recovery.
Where could Anglo's shares go?
The first forecast point is October 2027. Its weighted price is 2,552.12 GBp, implying a 37% loss including dividends. The last point is October 2029. Its weighted price is 3,953.73 GBp, still a 1% loss. The bear case has 32% probability, the base case 48% and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 32 % | 1727.69 (-58 %) | 1778.37 (-56 %) | 1668.43 (-59 %) |
| Base | 48 % | 2619.30 (-36 %) | 3587.25 (-11 %) | 4256.27 (+7 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 3710.01 (-9 %) | 5535.60 (+37 %) | 6884.11 (+72 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 2552.12 (-37 %) | 3398.08 (-16 %) | 3953.73 (-1 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Anglo's forecast?
EBITDA is the main operating driver. The base path rises from $9,700m to $13,000m because the H1 2026 underlying EBITDA run rate was $8,004m, copper prices strengthened, and 2027 production guidance rises to 750–810kt of copper and 59–63Mt of premium iron ore. Teck contributes progressively, while synergies build toward the targeted $800m annually.
The bear path reaches only $9,000m because weaker prices, lower Chilean grades and delayed recovery reduce Anglo’s core earnings; Teck contributes less and integration costs persist. The bull path reaches $15,500m because stronger copper, improved grades, production at or above guidance and successful integration compound. Q2 copper production was flat, while Collahuasi and Quellaveco faced grade pressure.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 9,700 (8,000 / 10,900) | 11,900 (8,800 / 14,000) | 13,000 (9,000 / 15,500) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,829 (1,830 / 1,829) | 1,830 (1,832 / 1,829) | 1,831 (1,833 / 1,830) |
| Dividends per share | 0.40 (0.23 / 0.55) | 0.60 (0.10 / 0.88) | 0.76 (0.00 / 1.20) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 7.50 (6.50 / 9.00) | 8.00 (6.00 / 10.00) | 8.50 (5.50 / 11.00) |
| Net debt | 9,290 (10,119 / 8,234) | 8,241 (9,655 / 5,877) | 7,267 (8,989 / 3,658) |
What this means. Enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization shows how much investors pay for each dollar of operating profit.
How much cash does Anglo really make?
Anglo’s own free-cash-flow measure was $790 million, while the calculation here reaches $1,257 million. A further measure deducts stock pay as an economic cost, producing “real free cash flow” of $1,128 million.
The useful conclusion is not that one definition is correct, but that cash must be tested against maintenance, project timing and repeatability before it is treated as durable surplus.
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 1,257 | 348 |
| − Stock pay | 129 | 152 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,128 | 196 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 790 | -209 |
| What its own count also takes out | 467 | 557 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is lower because it also subtracts 467 million dollars of cash payments that our count does not.