CMOC dividend: cash cover and yield
CMOC’s dividend rose to RMB0.29 per share in 2025, and its cash covered the payout, with dividends absorbing 50.8% of free cash flow. CMOC’s dividend policy promises cash dividends above 40% of attributable profit for 2024–2026, subject to business needs.
How much does CMOC pay per share?
Dividends rise gradually in the base case from RMB0.38 to RMB0.42 and RMB0.46 per share. This extends the uninterrupted DPS growth from RMB0.07 in 2021 to RMB0.29 in 2025, but remains below the stated payout ambition because the 2025 distribution was only 30.08% of profit. The bear case gives RMB0.15 and then RMB0.12 as project spending and weaker cash conversion dominate. The bull case gives RMB0.55, RMB0.62 and RMB0.70, supported by the RMB1.54941 analyst EPS estimate and stronger cash realization.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 206,683.64905043 | 213,028.66483479 | 186,268.97192054 | 172,990.85722136 | 173,862.58615482 |
| Net income | 20,065.70091047 | 13,480.11193812 | 6,475.4622053 | 5,959.85668356 | |
| Dividend per share | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
What this means. Revenue growth in 2023 and 2024 is harder to compare because the company sold its Australian operations in December 2023.
Does CMOC’s dividend come from its free cash flow?
CMOC’s cash first supported expansion and payouts, then helped rebuild financial strength. Free cash flow means operating cash left after capital spending. It was weak or negative from 2021 to 2023, while dividends still went out. In 2024, free cash flow improved sharply, but in 2025 dividends absorbed 50.8%. Working capital also matters: cash can be tied up in inventory or unpaid customer bills even when a mine reports accounting profit.
Paid out, % of free cash flow — Odin’s RMB2,842.67376053 million purchase raised the payout ratio; excluding it, shareholder payments were 40.2% of free cash flow.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 10,737.73450495 | 23,632.22546438 | -2,005.07722449 | 1,491.58355568 | -94.24267074 |
| − Dividends paid | 5,455.54909488 | 3,300.07234465 | 1,820.22790977 | 1,524.34460004 | 712.77494021 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 499.99999632 | 684.11749195 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 4,380.03893007 | 19,699.09810973 | |||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 50.8% | 14.0% | not meaningful | 135.7% | not meaningful |
What this means. In 2022, the report leaves out the amount spent on buying businesses, so it cannot fully explain where the cash went.
What could change CMOC’s dividend?
CMOC’s dividend policy now promises cash dividends above 40% of attributable profit for 2024–2026, subject to business needs. Its first interim dividend, declared in 2026, changed payment timing but did not by itself prove the annual promise had been met. The real test is whether shareholder returns remain compatible with maintenance, new projects and financial resilience.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 59,000 (47,200 / 64,000) | 63,000 (42,000 / 75,000) | 67,000 (39,100 / 86,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 21,394 (21,525 / 21,734) | 21,394 (21,657 / 21,734) | 21,394 (21,788 / 21,734) |
| Dividends per share | 0.38 (0.15 / 0.55) | 0.42 (0.12 / 0.62) | 0.46 (0.12 / 0.70) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 4.80 (4.20 / 5.50) | 5.10 (3.70 / 6.50) | 5.40 (3.30 / 7.50) |
| Net debt | -21,058 (-13,172 / -24,534) | -28,828 (-10,469 / -39,735) | -36,383 (-3,837 / -56,457) |
What is CMOC’s dividend yield today?
A forward P/E is the share price divided by forecast earnings. On 15 October 2026, the H share traded at HK$14.19, equal to a forward P/E of 7.8x. That looks modest, but mining profits rise and fall with metal prices. Copper averaged US$13,083.97 per tonne in the first half of 2026, 38.73% above the prior year. Normalized earnings therefore mean profits estimated at ordinary prices, costs and production, not at an unusually favourable point in the cycle. A low P/E can be like buying a bakery on a profit forecast built around an unusually high cake price.