CMOC stock forecast
CMOC's weighted price reaches HKD20.63 in October 2029, with outcomes from HKD7.15 to HKD37.85. It hinges on whether production growth becomes durable cash despite copper prices, cobalt exports and project execution.
Where could CMOC's shares be by 2029?
The forecast's central case is a positive return with substantial downside risk. The weighted price is HKD15.86 in October 2027, a 15% total return including dividends. It rises to HKD17.98 in October 2028, a 33% return. By October 2029, it reaches HKD20.63, a 55% return.
At the final date, the bear case gives HKD7.15 and the bull case gives HKD37.85. That is a range from a 46% loss to a 182% gain, dividends included, against today's HKD14.19.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 11.52 (-18 %) | 8.98 (-34 %) | 7.15 (-46 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 16.68 (+21 %) | 19.19 (+42 %) | 21.83 (+64 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 20.32 (+48 %) | 28.45 (+110 %) | 37.85 (+182 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 15.86 (+15 %) | 17.98 (+33 %) | 20.63 (+55 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for CMOC?
EBITDA is the main operating assumption. The latest half-year run-rate proxy is RMB58,759 million, based on operating income and depreciation. The base case rounds this to RMB59,000 million for the first forecast date, then RMB63,000 million and RMB67,000 million, supported by production guidance and KFM Phase II. The bear case falls to RMB47,200 million, then RMB42,000 million and RMB39,100 million as copper spreads and cobalt cash conversion weaken. The bull case rises to RMB64,000 million, then RMB75,000 million and RMB86,000 million if copper markets, KFM execution and cobalt exports all cooperate. The base remains credible because reported EBITDA rose from RMB14,820 million in 2021 to RMB45,090 million in 2025, but that record includes a production ramp and favorable prices.
How much cash does CMOC really make?
Free cash flow also depends on definition. CMOC’s own measure was RMB13,260 million. A stricter measure deducts interest and lease payments as well as capital spending, showing what remains after those obligations.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 20,843.06070878 | 32,386.65554172 | 15,542.00349574 | 15,453.76107268 | 6,190.64805198 |
| = Free cash flow | 10,737.73450495 | 23,632.22546438 | -2,005.07722449 | 1,491.58355568 | -94.24267074 |
| − Stock pay | 1.53333335 | 14.10893092 | 41.9513565 | 63.61660057 | 63.06053516 |
| = Real free cash flow | 10,736.2011716 | 23,618.11653346 | -2,047.02858099 | 1,427.96695511 | -157.3032059 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 13,260 | 27,490 | 2,620 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves out interest and lease payments, while our count subtracts them as cash that has already left the company.
What does an investor pay for CMOC today?
A forward P/E is the share price divided by forecast earnings. On 15 October 2026, the H share traded at HK$14.19, equal to a forward P/E of 7.8x. That looks modest, but mining profits rise and fall with metal prices. Copper averaged US$13,083.97 per tonne in the first half of 2026, 38.73% above the prior year. Normalized earnings therefore mean profits estimated at ordinary prices, costs and production, not at an unusually favourable point in the cycle. A low P/E can be like buying a bakery on a profit forecast built around an unusually high cake price.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 14.19 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 7.8x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.1% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.4% |
What this means. The price-to-earnings number uses expected future profit, while the note says past-year profit data was unavailable, so it should not be read as a past-year measure.