What the business is
TotalEnergies sells crude oil and natural gas to refiners, utilities and industrial buyers. It turns part of that supply into fuels, chemicals and electricity for businesses, fleets and households. A dollar comes in when customers buy these commodities and products. It then passes through extraction, processing, shipping and other costs at each stage; what remains supports operating profit. Excise taxes are government taxes on specific goods such as fuel, so 2025 sales were $201.2 billion including them, versus $182.3 billion of consolidated revenue.
The business is integrated: production can be matched with processing, transport and customers. That can capture value across the chain, but earnings still move with commodity prices and the costs of every stage. TotalEnergies produced 2.529 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, a common unit for comparing oil and gas output. Profitability is uneven. In 2025, Refining & Chemicals had $114.3 billion of segment revenue but $2.4 billion of adjusted net operating income, while Exploration & Production generated $8.4 billion. Adjusted net operating income is the company’s operating profit after selected adjustments.
The latest quarter and year
In Q3 2026, the European refining margin marker jumped to $33.2 per barrel from $8.4 a year earlier. It is a benchmark estimate of the profit from turning crude oil into fuels. Refining & Chemicals adjusted net operating income rose to $3.601 billion from $687 million.
Production fell to 2,474 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day from 2,508. Operating cash flow was $15.390 billion, including a $3.1 billion working-capital release.
For 2025, production increased to 2.529 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from 2,434 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. Revenue fell 6.8%. LNG sales rose to 43.9 million tonnes from 39.8 million. LNG is natural gas cooled into a liquid so it can be shipped by sea. Yet Integrated LNG adjusted net operating income fell to $4.109 billion from $4.869 billion. Integrated Power ROACE was 9.7% in 2025, below the company’s roughly 12% goal. ROACE measures profit earned on capital invested. Higher LNG sales did not lift LNG profit, and production fell in the latest quarter.
Five fiscal years (production: thousand boe/day; prices and costs: US$/barrel or boe; money: US$ millions; per share: US$)
Last eight reported periods (US$ millions; production: thousand boe/day; liquids price: US$/barrel; production cost: US$/boe)
Who runs it
Patrick Pouyanné has been chairman and chief executive since 2015. Before becoming CEO, he led Refining & Chemicals after working in government and oil and gas operations. CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire has held the role since 2019, after working in trading, shipping and finance. Pouyanné’s 2025 pay included €1.55 million fixed salary and €2,535,800 annual variable pay. Performance shares reward shareholder return and cash flow per share versus peers, plus cash breakeven, methane emissions and carbon intensity. Pouyanné held 578,895 shares at December 31, 2025. Company-wide stock pay was $585 million in 2025, while diluted average shares fell 4.3%.
Guidance and our forecast
For 2026, management guides to $15 billion of net investment. It expects production growth above 3%, excluding the Middle East conflict, and targets 60 terawatt-hours of electricity production. The promises-kept score is 2/5. Net investment exceeded its original forecast in all five years checked. Net power production fell short in three of four years.
Our weighted share value is €103.64. It implies a 25% total return by October 2027. The value reaches €118.11 by October 2029, implying a 51% return. The bear case has a 30% probability. The base case has 55%. The bull case has 15%. Remember: the base case needs Power’s free cash flow to turn positive in 2027, while the bull case needs Mozambique LNG to reach first production in 2029.