ExxonMobil dividend: cash coverage and yield
ExxonMobil paid $4.00 of dividends per share. ExxonMobil’s free cash flow per share was $6.07, so the dividend was covered on that measure.
How much does ExxonMobil pay in dividends?
Production rose to 4,736 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2025, but realized liquids prices fell to $55.30 per barrel. Capital spending reached $28,358 million and calculated net debt reached $32,856 million. Chemical earnings fell to $800 million, with chemical ROCE at 2.7%. ExxonMobil’s free cash flow per share was $6.07, against $4.00 of dividends per share. Buybacks were $4.71 per share, yet net share dilution was 0.2%.
The base dividend rises from $4.12 per share to $4.36 by October 2029. The bear case holds it at $4.12, while the bull case reaches $4.52. The latest declared quarterly dividend was $1.03, and annual DPS rose each year from 2021 through 2025. The pause protects the bear case from assuming a cut, while the increases reflect management’s stated priority of a growing dividend.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations per share (calculated) | 12.07 | 12.80 | 13.66 | 18.26 | 11.26 |
| Free cash flow per share (calculated) | 6.07 | 7.99 | 8.94 | 14.76 | 8.86 |
| Dividend per share | 4.00 | 3.84 | 3.68 | 3.55 | 3.49 |
| Buybacks per share (calculated) | 4.71 | 4.57 | 4.38 | 3.60 | 0.04 |
| Net share dilution (calculated) | 0.2% | 6.1% | -3.6% | -1.6% | 0.1% |
Does ExxonMobil’s cash cover its dividend?
Stock compensation is another economic deduction. Issuing shares is not a current cash payment, but it gives employees part of the business. After stock pay and payments to subsidiary minority owners, the analytical remainder was below the company’s distributions through dividends and repurchases.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 22,612 | 29,916 | 32,850 | 57,742 | 35,441 |
| Dividends paid | 17,231 | 16,704 | 14,941 | 14,939 | 14,924 |
| Shares bought back | 20,273 | 19,629 | 17,748 | 15,155 | 155 |
| Debt raised minus debt repaid (calculated) | 1,203 | -251 | 924 | 632 | 38 |
| Returned to shareholders, share of real free cash flow (calculated) | 165.9% | 121.5% | 99.5% | 52.1% | 42.5% |
What could change ExxonMobil’s dividend?
The view would move toward the bear case from 2027 through 2029 if oil and product margins normalize downward, chemical oversupply persists, or project setbacks raise capital needs. A weaker cash result would cut buybacks before dividends, while a premium multiple would contract.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 92,000 (68,000 / 105,000) | 96,000 (65,000 / 112,000) | 100,000 (67,000 / 119,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 3,959 (3,997 / 3,937) | 3,874 (3,941 / 3,831) | 3,795 (3,887 / 3,732) |
| Dividends per share | 4.12 (4.12 / 4.12) | 4.24 (4.12 / 4.32) | 4.36 (4.12 / 4.52) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 10.00 (8.00 / 11.00) | 10.00 (7.50 / 11.50) | 10.00 (7.50 / 12.00) |
| Net debt | 17,875 (28,536 / 13,320) | 2,035 (27,338 / -9,044) | -16,869 (24,512 / -35,466) |
What is ExxonMobil’s dividend yield against its share price?
Valuation can still fall even if earnings reach the forward estimate. At a later multiple of 12x, that earnings base would value the shares at about US$136.67 before dividends. The 2.4% dividend yield offers income, but only a limited cushion against a large price decline.