Waste Connections earnings
Waste Connections’ next results are expected on October 21, 2026. Watch whether stronger earnings become cash.
What has Waste Connections guided for the year?
Management’s promise is a stronger operating year, not a larger cash harvest. On July 22, Waste Connections raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts. Guidance is a forecast, not a guarantee; it includes completed acquisitions but excludes future deals.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Year to Dec 2026 | 10,020,000 | 10,050,000 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Year to Dec 2026 | 3,330,000 | 3,340,000 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Capital expenditures for property and equipment | Year to Dec 2026 | 1,250,000 | 1,250,000 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Year to Dec 2026 | 1,400,000 | 1,450,000 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| full year effective tax rate | Year to Dec 2026 | 23.1% | 23.1% | Jul 22, 2026 |
Did Waste Connections keep its past promises?
Management also delivered unevenly against its promises. 2025 revenue finished within the forecast range, while adjusted free cash flow reached approximately US$1.26 billion, below the forecast. The large fall in voluntary turnover supports the employee-retention commitment. Both results belong in the assessment.
What do Waste Connections’ last eight quarters show?
Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, revenue and gross margin improved. Reported operating income nevertheless declined because US$58.466 million of impairments and other operating items weighed on the period. Removing that category from both quarters produces operating-income growth of approximately 7.0%, making the improvement credible but narrower than the headline adjusted margin suggests.
Operating cash flow improved, but capital spending also rose. The quarter therefore produced better cash after capital spending, while the eight-quarter record still contains an unusual December 2024 operating loss that should not become the benchmark for recovery.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,561,607 | 2,370,631 | 2,373,306 | 2,458,378 | 2,407,055 | 2,228,176 | 2,260,283 | 2,338,488 |
| Operating income | 437,554 | 364,080 | 420,828 | 439,591 | 459,545 | 390,210 | -199,189 | 475,343 |
| Net income | 296,399 | 219,344 | 258,499 | 286,271 | 290,276 | 241,510 | -196,004 | 308,046 |
| EPS, diluted | 1.17 | 0.86 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 0.93 | -0.76 | 1.19 |
| Cash from operations | 733,288 | 545,598 | 556,879 | 677,449 | 638,202 | 541,539 | 568,929 | 558,310 |
| = Free cash flow | 171,346 | 293,664 |
What should I watch in Waste Connections’ next results?
The decisive tests are whether stronger earnings become cash, whether RNG reaches sustained production, and whether Chiquita Canyon stops expanding its demands on cash.