Waste Connections dividend
Waste Connections pays $0.35 per share each quarter, and the memo's cash test supports a qualified yes. In 2025, free cash flow was US$1,215,514 thousand after lease payments, while dividends delivered cash directly and buybacks reduced the future share count.
How much does Waste Connections pay per share over time?
The current quarterly dividend is $0.35. The base case applies roughly 10% annual increases, producing $1.435 per share in the first forecast window and $1.694 in the last. The bear case freezes the annual rate at $1.40, while the bull case assumes 12% increases and reaches $1.756. The base follows five consecutive annual increases and the latest 11.1% increase, although capital spending and Chiquita compete for cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Paid to minority owners, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 1.29 | 1.17 | 1.05 | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.65 | 1.30 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 1.46 | 3.35 | 3.56 | 1.70 | 1.50 |
Is Waste Connections’ dividend covered by its cash?
The operating evidence supports a qualified yes. Arrowhead gained volume, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 33.0% in 2025. Dividends delivered cash directly, while buybacks reduced the future share count. But Chiquita shows that some cash merely meets environmental obligations rather than creating new earning power. The final test is therefore whether WCN’s acquisition engine creates durable cash returns.
Operating cash flow was US$2,414,069 thousand in 2025, while capital spending absorbed US$1,194,366 thousand. After lease payments, free cash flow was US$1,215,514 thousand, only 3.9% above 2024. Its share of revenue fell from 15.5% in 2021 to 12.8% in 2025.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 1,215,514 | 1,169,583 | 1,190,000 | 1,107,388 | 950,781 |
| − Dividends paid | 333,807 | 302,258 | 270,604 | 243,013 | 220,203 |
| − Share buybacks | 505,517 | 0 | 0 | 424,999 | 338,993 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 376,190 | 867,325 | 919,396 | 439,376 | 391,585 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 69.1% | 25.8% | 22.7% | 60.3% | 58.8% |
What could change Waste Connections’ dividend?
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3,505 (3,244 / 3,624) | 3,732 (3,268 / 4,056) | 3,954 (3,335 / 4,506) |
| Dividends per share | 1.44 (1.40 / 1.44) | 1.54 (1.40 / 1.57) | 1.69 (1.40 / 1.76) |
| Net debt | 8,640 (9,460 / 8,640) | 8,040 (9,860 / 8,040) | 7,340 (10,160 / 7,260) |
What is Waste Connections’ dividend yield today?
At C$218.17, the stock offers a small cash return while asking investors to trust continued growth. Market capitalization measures what shareholders pay for the equity. Enterprise value measures the operating business before its claims are divided among lenders, leaseholders and shareholders, so the gap between them is not automatically net debt.
Free cash flow yield is therefore more useful than EBITDA alone, provided “free” cash funds recurring fleet replacement and landfill development. The dividend yield is only 0.9%, so dividend income cannot carry the investment case.