WM stock forecast
WM's weighted forecast is $252.98 in October 2027 and $291.07 in October 2029, based on 25% bear, 60% base and 15% bull cases. WM's forecast hinges on pricing and productivity offsetting modest volume pressure while healthcare improves gradually.
Where could WM's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is $252.98 in October 2027, a 15% return, and $291.07 in October 2029, a 36% return. Its case probabilities are 25% bear, 60% base and 15% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 205.75 (-7 %) | 193.01 (-11 %) | 200.32 (-6 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 259.94 (+18 %) | 277.89 (+28 %) | 296.16 (+38 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 303.87 (+37 %) | 353.17 (+62 %) | 421.95 (+95 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 252.98 (+15 %) | 267.96 (+23 %) | 291.07 (+36 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for WM?
EBITDA is the main operating driver. The base case rises from $8,550 million in October 2027 to $9,250 million in October 2029. That is slower than WM’s recent growth record, because price and productivity must offset subdued volume while healthcare integration and sustainability projects develop gradually. Adjusted EBITDA rose every year from 2021 through 2025, and 2026 guidance is $8.15–$8.25 billion. The bear case gives $8,000 million, $7,850 million and $8,000 million as volume, retention and healthcare risks weigh. The bull case gives $8,800 million, $9,500 million and $10,250 million if projects connect and ramp on schedule.
How much cash does WM really make?
An analyst can also subtract stock compensation as an allowance for ownership given to employees. This produces a stricter measure of cash available to shareholders, even though the deduction is not another cash payment. Across the five-year period, that stricter cash measure grew, but it declined as a share of revenue.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 2,816 | 2,159 | 1,824 | 1,949 | 2,434 |
| − Stock pay | 169 | 118 | 93 | 84 | 108 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,647 | 2,041 | 1,731 | 1,865 | 2,326 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% |
What does an investor pay for WM today?
At $224.19 on October 16, 2026, WM is priced as a dependable business, not as an obvious bargain.
The trailing P/E compares the share price with earnings already reported. The forward P/E looks cheaper because it uses expected earnings, which may reflect real improvement, lower integration costs, less interest expense, or optimistic forecasts. Stericycle complicates the comparison: acquired customer relationships are amortized over time, while integration costs can involve real cash spending.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 224.19 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 31.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 24.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.0% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.7% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company's debt and subtracts its cash, showing what it would cost to buy the whole business.