Republic Services stock forecast
The weighted forecast sees $229.93 in October 2027 and $249.26 in October 2029, including dividends. It hinges on pricing and acquisitions offsetting weak volume.
Where could Republic Services shares go?
The weighted forecast sees little near-term upside, followed by a modest return if Republic delivers the base case. The weighted price is $229.93 in October 2027, a 0% return including dividends. It reaches $238.54 in October 2028, a 5% return, and $249.26 in October 2029, an 11% return. The 2029 range is wide: $161.35 in the bear case to $362.54 in the bull case, against today’s $231.54.
The probabilities are bear 30%, base 55% and bull 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 190.59 (-17 %) | 174.82 (-22 %) | 161.35 (-27 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 241.37 (+5 %) | 253.17 (+12 %) | 266.31 (+19 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 266.64 (+16 %) | 312.32 (+37 %) | 362.54 (+60 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 229.93 (+0 %) | 238.54 (+5 %) | 249.26 (+11 %) |
What could go right or wrong for Republic Services?
The bear path uses $5,390 million of October 2027 EBITDA, then $5,469 million and $5,619 million. Weak construction, residential contract exits and project-sensitive Environmental Solutions outweigh pricing. The bull path uses $5,904 million, then $6,475 million and $7,075 million, assuming volume recovery, productivity, integration and polymer operations improve.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5,745 (5,390 / 5,904) | 6,038 (5,469 / 6,475) | 6,345 (5,619 / 7,075) |
| Shares (millions) | 304 (305 / 303) | 301 (303 / 300) | 299 (302 / 297) |
| Dividends per share | 2.73 (2.68 / 2.73) | 2.90 (2.70 / 2.93) | 3.08 (2.78 / 3.13) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 15.20 (13.50 / 16.00) | 15.00 (12.50 / 16.50) | 14.80 (11.50 / 17.00) |
| Net debt | 14,069 (14,700 / 13,700) | 14,369 (15,350 / 13,150) | 14,369 (15,900 / 12,500) |
How much cash does Republic Services really make?
The basic free-cash-flow test subtracts property and equipment spending from operating cash. That spending includes maintenance and growth projects, such as landfill cells and recycling facilities, so the statement does not reveal perfectly which dollars are optional. Subtracting stock pay gives a stricter owner-focused measure because stock compensation can dilute shareholders even when it uses no current cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,296 | 3,936 | 3,618 | 3,190 | 2,786.7 |
| − Capital spending | 1,887 | 1,855 | 1,631 | 1,454 | 1,316.3 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,409 | 2,081 | 1,987 | 1,736 | 1,470.4 |
| − Stock pay | 53 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 57.0 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,356 | 2,039 | 1,946 | 1,697 | 1,413.4 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is usually higher because it leaves out some cash costs or counts some cash received that our count includes differently.
What does an investor pay for Republic Services?
Free cash flow is cash left after selected operating investments, not after every obligation. Republic must replace trucks, build landfill cells, meet environmental requirements, service debt, pay dividends, and fund acquisitions. Enterprise value adds debt to the value assigned by shareholders, less cash, so it measures the operating business before lenders are paid.